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Poverty dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012 : insights from longitudinal analysis using synthetic panel data

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  • Dang,Hai-Anh H.
  • Lanjouw,Peter F.
  • Dang,Hai-Anh H.
  • Lanjouw,Peter F.

Abstract

Recent National Sample Surveys point to significant poverty reduction in India since 2004/05, with a marked acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. This paper enquires into important aspects of income mobility between 2004/05 and 2011/12, based on new statistical methods to convert the three pertinent National Sample Survey rounds into synthetic panels. The analysis draws on the synthetic panels to derive a vulnerability line for India that can be used to separate out a population subgroup comprising non-poor households facing a heightened risk of falling into poverty. The paper documents a strong pattern of upward mobility out of poverty and vulnerability into the middle class, with a noticeable acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. The paper further undertakes a careful investigation into the comparability of the survey rounds, prompted by the observation that fairly significant modifications had been made to survey questionnaires. The findings suggest that changes in questionnaire design have not compromised the comparability of the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F. & Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2015. "Poverty dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012 : insights from longitudinal analysis using synthetic panel data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7270, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7270
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    1. Beegle, Kathleen & De Weerdt, Joachim & Friedman, Jed & Gibson, John, 2012. "Methods of household consumption measurement through surveys: Experimental results from Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 3-18.
    2. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F. & Serajuddin,Umar & Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F. & Serajuddin,Umar, 2014. "Updating poverty estimates at frequent intervals in the absence of consumption data : methods and illustration with reference to a middle-income country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7043, The World Bank.
    3. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
    4. Bierbaum, Mira & Gassmann, Franziska, 2012. "Chronic and transitory poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic: What can synthetic panels tell us?," MERIT Working Papers 064, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
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    23. repec:pri:rpdevs:deaton_dreze_poverty_india is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F. & Swinkels,Robertus A & Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F. & Swinkels,Robertus A, 2014. "Who remained in poverty, who moved up, and who fell down ? an investigation of poverty dynamics in Senegal in the late 2000s," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7141, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Azam, Mehtabul, 2016. "Household Income Mobility in India: 1993-2011," IZA Discussion Papers 10308, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. repec:oup:oxecpp:v:69:y:2017:i:4:p:939-962. is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Inequality; Educational Sciences; Employment and Unemployment; Food Security; Industrial Economics; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Growth;

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