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Chronic and transitory poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic: What can synthetic panels tell us?

Author

Listed:
  • Bierbaum, Mira

    (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG, Maastricht University)

  • Gassmann, Franziska

    (UNU-MERIT/MGSoG, Maastricht University)

Abstract

The Kyrgyz Republic has enjoyed remarkable success in poverty reduction in recent years. Poverty headcounts were halved between 2005 (63.9 per cent) and 2008 (31.3 per cent), before they slightly increased again to 33.7 per cent (2010). However, these aggregate figures mask individual or household trajectories into and out of poverty. Additionally, the question arises as to who has remained poor for an extended duration, i.e. has been chronic poor. Since the panel component of the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey suffers from shortcomings, a synthetic panel based on repeated cross-sections is created to investigate poverty persistence and dynamics between 2005 and 2010, following an approach proposed by Dang, Lanjouw, Luoto, and McKenzie (2011). The share of chronic poor ranges between 23.6 per cent-31.5 per cent; that is to say, 74.8 per cent-80.2 per cent of the people classified as poor in 2010 have experienced it for an extended duration. At least two chronic poverty traps are identified: Spatial disadvantages occur in the rural oblasts of Jalal-Abad, Talas, and Naryn that are characterized by adverse topography and low levels of human capital. Moreover, poor work opportunities, particularly employment in informal, low-paid sectors with high income-insecurity, hinder escapes from poverty. These spatial and social traps coincide. Few people fell into poverty between 2005 and 2008, but the picture is more volatile in the years following the fuel and food crisis and the global financial and economic crisis. People employed in informal sectors are more vulnerable to economic downturns, leading to questions regarding the scope, extent and level of existing social safety nets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bierbaum, Mira & Gassmann, Franziska, 2012. "Chronic and transitory poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic: What can synthetic panels tell us?," MERIT Working Papers 2012-064, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2012064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wood, Geof, 2003. "Staying Secure, Staying Poor: The "Faustian Bargain"," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 455-471, March.
    2. Wenefrida Dwi Widyanti & Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto & Athia Yumna, "undated". "The Relationship between Chronic Poverty and Household Dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia," Working Papers 339, Publications Department.
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    4. Kai-yuen Tsui, 2002. "Multidimensional poverty indices," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 19(1), pages 69-93.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Lora & Miguel Benítez & Diego Gutiérrez, 2024. "Annualizing labor market, inequality, and poverty indicators," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(1), pages 131-164, March.
    2. Ines A. Ferreira & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Poverty and vulnerability transitions in Myanmar: An analysis using synthetic panels," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1919-1944, November.
    3. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Peter F. Lanjouw, 2018. "Poverty Dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012: Insights from Longitudinal Analysis Using Synthetic Panel Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 131-170.
    4. Brück, Tilman & Esenaliev, Damir & Kroeger, Antje & Kudebayeva, Alma & Mirkasimov, Bakhrom & Steiner, Susan, 2014. "Household survey data for research on well-being and behavior in Central Asia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 819-835.
    5. Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Elena Ianchovichina, 2018. "Welfare Dynamics With Synthetic Panels: The Case of the Arab World In Transition," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(s1), pages 114-144, October.
    6. Hai‐Anh Dang & Dean Jolliffe & Calogero Carletto, 2019. "Data Gaps, Data Incomparability, And Data Imputation: A Review Of Poverty Measurement Methods For Data‐Scarce Environments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 757-797, July.
    7. Federica Alfani & Fabio Clementi & Michele Fabiani & Vasco Molini & Enzo Valentini, 2023. "Once NEET, always NEET? A synthetic panel approach to analyze the Moroccan labor market," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 2401-2437, November.
    8. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F., 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
    9. Alma Kudebayeva, 2018. "Chronic Poverty in Kazakhstan," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp627, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; chronic and transitory poverty; poverty reduction synthetic panel; Kyrgyz Republic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • P36 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty

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