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Welfare dynamics with synthetic panels : the case of the Arab world in transition

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  • Dang,Hai-Anh H.
  • Ianchovichina,Elena
  • Dang,Hai-Anh H.
  • Ianchovichina,Elena

Abstract

This paper studies welfare dynamics, especially changes associated with middle-class status in countries in the Middle East and North Africa, before and after the Arab Spring transitions, using objective and subjective welfare measures. Absent panel data, the analysis employs state-of-the-art synthetic panel techniques using repeated cross sections of expenditure data from household surveys and subjective well-being data from value surveys, which were conducted during the 2000s and the Arab Spring period. The objective welfare dynamics indicate mixed trends. About half the poor in the 2000s moved out of poverty by the end of the decade, but chronic poverty remained high; upward mobility was strong in Syria and Tunisia, but downward mobility was pronounced in Yemen and Egypt. Subjective well-being dynamics suggest negative developments in most countries during the Arab Spring transitions. Low education achievement, informal worker status, and rural residency are positively associated with lower than average chances for upward mobility, and greater than average chances for downward mobility according to both types of welfare measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Ianchovichina,Elena & Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Ianchovichina,Elena, 2016. "Welfare dynamics with synthetic panels : the case of the Arab world in transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7595, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7595
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    3. Rodrigo Carrillo Valles & Patricia Lopez Rodriguez & Isidro Soloaga, 2020. "Dinamicas de pobreza en Mexico, 2008-2018," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 17(2), pages 7-32, Julio-Dic.
    4. Hai‐Anh Dang & Dean Jolliffe & Calogero Carletto, 2019. "Data Gaps, Data Incomparability, And Data Imputation: A Review Of Poverty Measurement Methods For Data‐Scarce Environments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 757-797, July.
    5. Kamal Kasmaoui, 2020. "What makes Moroccans happy: A micro-data study," Working Papers hal-02956855, HAL.
    6. Hai‐Anh H. Dang, 2021. "To impute or not to impute, and how? A review of poverty‐estimation methods in the absence of consumption data," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 39(6), pages 1008-1030, November.
    7. KASMAOUI, Kamal & ERRAMI, Youssef, 2017. "Social Cohesion, Institutions and Public Policies: New Evidence from the MENA region," MPRA Paper 80950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Himanshu & Peter Lanjouw, 2020. "Income mobility in the developing world: Recent approaches and evidence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Esmat Mostafa Kamel, 2021. "The MENA region's need for more democracy and less bureaucracy: A gravity model controlling for aspects of governance and trade freedom in MENA," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(6), pages 1885-1912, June.
    10. Siham MATALLAH & Lahouari BENLAHCENE, 2021. "Public service delivery dilemma and economic growth challenges in the MENA Region," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 31-50, Winter.

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