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Estimating Quarterly Poverty Rates Using Labor Force Surveys: A Primer

Author

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  • Mohamed Douidich
  • Abdeljaouad Ezzrari
  • Roy Van der Weide
  • Paolo Verme

Abstract

This paper builds on the existing cross-survey imputation literature to provide up-to-date estimates of poverty when official estimates are deemed outdated. This is achieved by imputing household expenditure data into Labor Force Surveys (LFSs) with models that have been estimated using Household Expenditure Surveys (HESs). In an application to Morocco, where the latest official poverty rate is for 2007, estimates of poverty are obtained for all years (and quarters) between 2001 and 2009. It is found that the approach accurately reproduces the official poverty statistics for the two years these surveys are available. The imputation-based estimates furthermore reveal that poverty has consistently declined over the entire 2001–2009 period. This would suggest that poverty reduction in Morocco was not halted by the global financial crisis. While our focus is on head-count poverty, the method can be applied to any welfare indicator that is a function of household income or expenditure, such as the poverty gap or the Gini index of inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Douidich & Abdeljaouad Ezzrari & Roy Van der Weide & Paolo Verme, 2016. "Estimating Quarterly Poverty Rates Using Labor Force Surveys: A Primer," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 30(3), pages 475-500.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:30:y:2016:i:3:p:475-500.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luc Christiaensen & Peter Lanjouw & Jill Luoto & David Stifel, 2012. "Small area estimation-based prediction methods to track poverty: validation and applications," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(2), pages 267-297, June.
    2. Natalia Evgenevna Antonova, 2007. "The international scientific conference «Economic Cooperation between the Russian Far East and the Asia-Pacific Region Countries»," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 177-182.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Peter F. Lanjouw, 2018. "Poverty Dynamics in India between 2004 and 2012: Insights from Longitudinal Analysis Using Synthetic Panel Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(1), pages 131-170.
    2. Talip Kilic & Thomas Pave Sohnesen, 2019. "Same Question But Different Answer: Experimental Evidence on Questionnaire Design's Impact on Poverty Measured by Proxies," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(1), pages 144-165, March.
    3. Atamanov,Aziz & Tandon,Sharad Alan & Lopez-Acevedo,Gladys C. & Vergara Bahena,Mexico Alberto, 2020. "Measuring Monetary Poverty in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region : Data Gaps and Different Options to Address Them," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9259, The World Bank.
    4. Hai‐Anh Dang & Dean Jolliffe & Calogero Carletto, 2019. "Data Gaps, Data Incomparability, And Data Imputation: A Review Of Poverty Measurement Methods For Data‐Scarce Environments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 757-797, July.
    5. F. Clementi & A. L. Dabalen & V. Molini & F. Schettino, 2017. "When the Centre Cannot Hold: Patterns of Polarization in Nigeria," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(4), pages 608-632, December.
    6. Theresa Beltramo & Hai-Anh H. Dang & Ibrahima Sarr & Paolo Verme, 2020. "Estimating Poverty among Refugee Populations: A Cross-Survey Imputation Exercise for Chad," Working Papers 536, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    7. World Bank, 2016. "Tunisia Poverty Assessment 2015," World Bank Other Operational Studies 24410, The World Bank.
    8. Verme, Paolo, 2020. "Which Model for Poverty Predictions?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 468, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Peter F. Lanjouw & Umar Serajuddin, 2017. "Updating poverty estimates in the absence of regular and comparable consumption data: methods and illustration with reference to a middle-income country," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 939-962.
    10. Dang,Hai-Anh H., 2018. "To impute or not to impute ? a review of alternative poverty estimation methods in the context of unavailable consumption data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8403, The World Bank.
    11. Elena Ianchovichina & Lili Mottaghi & Shantayanan Devarajan, "undated". "Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2015," World Bank Other Operational Studies 22711, The World Bank.
    12. Utz Pape & Luca Parisotto, 2019. "Estimating Poverty in a Fragile Context – The High Frequency Survey in South Sudan," HiCN Working Papers 305, Households in Conflict Network.
    13. Ahmed, Faizuddin & Dorji, Cheku & Takamatsu, Shinya & Yoshida, Nobuo, 2014. "Hybrid survey to improve the reliability of poverty statistics in a cost-effective manner," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6909, The World Bank.
    14. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F. & Serajuddin,Umar & Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw,Peter F. & Serajuddin,Umar, 2014. "Updating poverty estimates at frequent intervals in the absence of consumption data : methods and illustration with reference to a middle-income country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7043, The World Bank.
    15. Newhouse, D. & Shivakumaran, S. & Takamatsu, S. & Yoshida, N., 2014. "How survey-to-survey imputation can fail," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6961, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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