Small area estimation-based prediction methods to track poverty: validation and applications
Tracking poverty is predicated on the availability of comparable consumption data and reliable price deflators. However, regular series of strictly comparable data are only rarely available. Price deflators are also often missing or disputed. In response, poverty prediction methods that track consumption correlates as opposed to consumption itself have been developed. These methods typically assume that the estimated relation between consumption and its predictors is stable over time -- an assumption that cannot usually be tested directly. This study analyzes the performance of poverty prediction models based on small area estimation techniques. Predicted poverty estimates are compared with directly observed levels in two country settings where data comparability over time is not a problem. Prediction models that employ either non-staple food or non-food expenditures or a full set of assets as predictors are found to yield poverty estimates that match observed poverty well. This offers some support to the use of such methods to approximate the evolution of poverty. Two further country examples illustrate how an application of the method employing models based on household assets can help to adjudicate between alternative price deflators.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 10 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://springerlink.metapress.com/link.asp?id=111137|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Gibson & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle, 2002.
"Improving Estimates of Inequality and Poverty From Urban China’s Household Income and Expenditure Survey,"
Working Papers in Economics
02/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
- John Gibson & Jikun Huang & Scott Rozelle, 2003. "Improving Estimates of Inequality and Poverty from Urban China's Household Income and Expenditure Survey," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(1), pages 53-68, 03.
- Gibson, John & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2001. "Improving Estimates Of Inequality And Poverty From Urban China'S Household Income And Expenditure Survey," Working Papers 11989, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- Michael Grimm & Isabel Günther, 2005.
"Growth and Poverty in Burkina Faso. A Reassessment of the Paradox,"
DT/2005/07, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
- Michael Grimm & Isabel Günther, 2007. "Growth and Poverty in Burkina Faso: A Reassessment of the Paradox," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(1), pages 70-101, January.
- Michael Grimm & Isabel Günther, 2005. "Growth and Poverty in Burkina Faso: A Reassessment of the Paradox," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 482, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Alessandro Tarozzi & Angus Deaton, 2009. "Using Census and Survey Data to Estimate Poverty and Inequality for Small Areas," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 773-792, November.
- Lanjouw, Jean Olson & Lanjouw, Peter, 2001. "How to Compare Apples and Oranges: Poverty Measurement Based on Different Definitions of Consumption," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(1), pages 25-42, March.
- Carlo Azzarri & Gero Carletto & Benjamin Davis & Alberto Zezza, 2006.
"Monitoring Poverty Without Consumption Data : An Application Using the Albania Panel Survey,"
Eastern European Economics,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 59-82, February.
- Carlo Azzarri & Gero Carletto & Benjamin Davis & Alberto Zezza, 2005. "Monitoring Poverty without Consumption Data: An application using the Albania panel survey," Working Papers 05-01, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
- Tarozzi, Alessandro, 2011. "Can census data alone signal heterogeneity in the estimation of poverty maps?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 170-185, July.
- Tarozzi, Alessandro, 2007.
"Calculating Comparable Statistics From Incomparable Surveys, With an Application to Poverty in India,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 314-336, July.
- Alessandro Tarozzi, 2004. "Calculating Comparable Statistics from Incomparable Surveys, with an Application to Poverty in India," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 280, Econometric Society.
- John Gibson & Steven Stillman & Trinh Le, 2004.
"CPI Bias and Real Living Standards in Russia During the Transition,"
Working Papers in Economics
04/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
- Gibson, John & Stillman, Steven & Le, Trinh, 2008. "CPI bias and real living standards in Russia during the transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 140-160, August.
- John Gibson & Steven Stillman, 2004. "CPI Bias and Real Living Standards in Russia During The Transition," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 504, Econometric Society.
- Sarah Harrower & John Hoddinott, 2005. "Consumption Smoothing in the Zone Lacustre, Mali," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 489-519, December.
- Astrid Mathiassen, 2009. "A model based approach for predicting annual poverty rates without expenditure data," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 117-135, June.
- repec:pri:rpdevs:deaton_price_trends_in_india_version_3_jan_08_all is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:pri:rpdevs:deaton_adjusted_poverty_india is not listed on IDEAS
- Chris Elbers & Jean O. Lanjouw & Peter Lanjouw, 2003. "Micro--Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 355-364, January.
- Martin Wall & Deborah Johnston, 2008. "Counting Heads or Counting Televisions: Can Asset-based Measures of Welfare Assist Policy-makers in Russia?," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 131-147.
- Demombynes, Gabriel & Elbers, Chris & Lanjouw, Jean O. & Lanjouw, Peter, 2007. "How good a map ? Putting small area estimation to the test," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4155, The World Bank.
- Steven Stillman & Duncan Thomas, 2008. "Nutritional Status During an Economic Crisis: Evidence from Russia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(531), pages 1385-1417, 08.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jecinq:v:10:y:2012:i:2:p:267-297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.