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Are international food price spikes the source of Egypt's high inflation ?

  • Al-Shawarby, Sherine
  • Selim, Hoda
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    This paper examines whether domestic inflation spikes in Egypt during 2001-2011 were primarily the result of external food price shocks. To estimate the pass-through of international food price inflation to domestic price inflation, two different methodologies are used: a two-step regression model estimates the pass-through in the long run, and a vector autoregression model provides the short-run estimates. The empirical evidence confirms that pass-through is high in the short term, but not in the long run. More precisely, the results show that (i) long-run pass-through to domestic food inflation is relatively low, lying between 13 and 16 percent, while the long-term spill-over from domestic food inflation to core inflation is moderate, lying around 60 percent; (ii) in the short term, pass-through is relatively high, estimated around 29 percent after 6 months and around two-thirds after a year, but the spill-over effect to core inflation is limited; (iii) international food price shocks explain only a small portion of domestic inflation shocks in both the short and long terms; and (iv) international price inflation has asymmetric effects on domestic prices.

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    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6177.

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    Date of creation: 01 Aug 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6177
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    1. Fred Furlong, 1989. "Commodity prices and inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun16.
    2. Luca ONORANTE & Gianluigi FERRUCCI & Rebeca JIMÉNEZ-RODRÍGUEZ, . "Food Price Pass-Through in the Euro Area: the Role of Asymmetries and Non-Linearities," EcoMod2010 259600126, EcoMod.
    3. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Park, Donghyun, 2009. "Inflation in developing Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 507-518, September.
    4. El-Sakka M. I. T. & Ghali Khalifa H, 2005. "The Sources of Inflation in Egypt: A Multivariate Co-integration Analysis," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 84-96, December.
    5. Sam Peltzman, 1998. "Prices Rise Faster Than They Fall," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 142, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
    6. Ronald Albers & Marga Peeters, 2011. "Food and Energy Prices, Government Subsidies and Fiscal Balances in South Mediterranean Countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 437, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Galesi, Alessandro & Lombardi, Marco J., 2009. "External shocks and international inflation linkages: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 1062, European Central Bank.
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