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Impact estimation of disasters : a global aggregate for 1960 to 2007

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  • Okuyama, Yasuhide
  • Sahin, Sebnem

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the global aggregate of disaster impacts during 1960 to 2007 using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) methodology. The authors selected 184 major disasters in terms of the size of economic damages, based on the data available from the International Emergency Disasters and MunichRe (NatCat) databases for natural catastrophes. They estimate the losses and total impacts including the higher-order effects of these disasters using social accounting matrices constructed for this study. Although the aggregate damages based on the data amount to US$742 billion, the aggregate losses and total impacts are estimated at US$360 billion and US$678 billion, respectively. The results show a growing trend of economic impacts over time in absolute value. However, once the data and estimates are normalized using global gross domestic product, the historical trend of total impacts becomes statistically insignificant. The visual observation confirms the inverted ‘U’ curve distribution between total impact and income level, while statistical analyses indicate negative linear relationships between them for climatological, geophysical, and especially hydrological events.

Suggested Citation

  • Okuyama, Yasuhide & Sahin, Sebnem, 2009. "Impact estimation of disasters : a global aggregate for 1960 to 2007," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4963, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4963
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    2. van Bergeijk, P.A.G. & Lazzaroni, S., 2013. "Macroeconomics of natural disasters," ISS Working Papers - General Series 50075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
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    7. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2010. "Globalization and Localization of Disaster Impacts: An Empirical Examination," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(02), pages 56-66, July.
    8. Suman K SHARMA, 2010. "Socio-Economic Aspects of Disaster’s Impact: An Assessment of Databases and Methodologies," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1001, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
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    14. Peter A. G. van Bergeijk & Sara Lazzaroni, 2015. "Macroeconomics of Natural Disasters: Strengths and Weaknesses of Meta‐Analysis Versus Review of Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(6), pages 1050-1072, June.
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    19. Sujan R Adhikari & Dileep K Adhikary, 2019. "An account of Nepal disasters and economic fallout," Working Papers hal-01995386, HAL.
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    21. Carlo Giupponi & Vahid Mojtahed & Animesh K. Gain & Stefano Balbi, 2013. "Integrated Assessment of Natural Hazards and Climate Change Adaptation: I. The KULTURisk Methodological Framework," Working Papers 2013:06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
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    23. De Alwis, Diana, 2018. "Distributional impacts of disaster recovery: Sri Lankan households a decade after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami," Working Paper Series 6980, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.

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    Keywords

    Natural Disasters; Hazard Risk Management; Disaster Management; Economic Theory&Research; Pollution Management&Control;
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