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Impact estimation of disasters : a global aggregate for 1960 to 2007

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  • Okuyama, Yasuhide
  • Sahin, Sebnem

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the global aggregate of disaster impacts during 1960 to 2007 using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) methodology. The authors selected 184 major disasters in terms of the size of economic damages, based on the data available from the International Emergency Disasters and MunichRe (NatCat) databases for natural catastrophes. They estimate the losses and total impacts including the higher-order effects of these disasters using social accounting matrices constructed for this study. Although the aggregate damages based on the data amount to US$742 billion, the aggregate losses and total impacts are estimated at US$360 billion and US$678 billion, respectively. The results show a growing trend of economic impacts over time in absolute value. However, once the data and estimates are normalized using global gross domestic product, the historical trend of total impacts becomes statistically insignificant. The visual observation confirms the inverted ‘U’ curve distribution between total impact and income level, while statistical analyses indicate negative linear relationships between them for climatological, geophysical, and especially hydrological events.

Suggested Citation

  • Okuyama, Yasuhide & Sahin, Sebnem, 2009. "Impact estimation of disasters : a global aggregate for 1960 to 2007," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4963, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4963
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 29-65.
    2. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650.
    3. Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
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    1. Carlos Adriàn Romero & Omar Osvaldo Chisari & Leonardo Javier Mastronardi & Arturo Leonardo Vásquez Cordano, 2015. "The cost of failing to prevent gas supply interruption: A CGE assessment for Peru," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 131-148.
    2. van Bergeijk, P.A.G. & Lazzaroni, S., 2013. "Macroeconomics of natural disasters," ISS Working Papers - General Series 50075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    3. Arouri, Mohamed & Nguyen, Cuong & Youssef, Adel Ben, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Household Welfare, and Resilience: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 59-77.
    4. Balbi Stefano & Giupponi Carlo & Mojtahed Vahid & Olschewski Roland, 2015. "The Total Cost of Water-Related Disasters," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(2), pages 225-252, August.
    5. Moore, Winston & Phillips, Willard, 2014. "Review of ECLAC damage and loss assessments in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38356, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. -, 2010. "The economics of climate change in Central America: summary 2010," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 35229, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2016. "Long-Run Effect Of A Disaster: Case Study On The Kobe Earthquake," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-18, March.
    8. Carlo Giupponi & Vahid Mojtahed & Animesh K. Gain & Stefano Balbi, 2013. "Integrated Assessment of Natural Hazards and Climate Change Adaptation: I. The KULTURisk Methodological Framework," Working Papers 2013:06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    9. Suman K SHARMA, 2010. "Socio-Economic Aspects of Disaster’s Impact: An Assessment of Databases and Methodologies," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1001, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    10. Mertens, Kewan & Jacobs, Liesbet & Maes, Jan & Kabaseke, Clovis & Maertens, Miet & Poesen, Jean & Kervyn, Matthieu & Vranken, Liesbet, 2015. "The impact of landslides on household income in tropical regions: a case study from the Rwenzori Mountains in Uganda," Working Papers 229008, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centre for Agricultural and Food Economics.
    11. Ramón E. López & Vinod Thomas & Pablo Troncoso, 2015. "Climate Change and Natural Disasters," Working Papers wp414, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    12. Umberto Monarca & Ernesto Cassetta & Alessandro Sarra & Cesare Pozzi, 2015. "Integrating renewable energy sources into electricity markets: Power system operation, resource adequacy and market design," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(2), pages 149-166.
    13. Animesh Gain & Vahid Mojtahed & Claudio Biscaro & Stefano Balbi & Carlo Giupponi, 2015. "An integrated approach of flood risk assessment in the eastern part of Dhaka City," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(3), pages 1499-1530, December.

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    Keywords

    Natural Disasters; Hazard Risk Management; Disaster Management; Economic Theory&Research; Pollution Management&Control;

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