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Capital flight and war

  • Davies, Victor A. B.

The author provides empirical evidence on the effects of inflation on post-war capital flight flows. He tests the hypothesis that inflation has a positive additional impact on capital flight flows after war. He uses a new panel dataset of 77 developing countries, of which 35 experienced at least one episode of war between 1971 and 2000. The author uses a range of estimation methods and four capital flight measures-Cline, World Bank Residual, Morgan Guarantee, and Dooley. The results consistently support the research hypothesis: Post-war inflation increases annual capital flight flows by about 0.005 to 0.01 percentage points of GDP. This effect is substantial in total at high inflation rates. The implication is that low inflation helps to curb capital flight in post-conflict economies.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4210.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4210
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  1. Collier, Paul & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1995. "War, peace and private portfolios," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 233-241, February.
  2. Morimune, Kimio, 1983. "Approximate Distributions of k-Class Estimators When the Degree of Overidentifiability Is Large Compared with the Sample Size," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 821-41, May.
  3. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Chang, P H Kevin & Claessens, Stijn & Cumby, Robert E, 1997. "Conceptual and Methodological Issues in the Measurement of Capital Flight," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 101-19, April.
  5. Léonce Ndikumana & James K. Boyce, 2002. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2002-02, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  6. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Catherine Pattillo, 2004. "Africa's Exodus: Capital Flight and the Brain Drain as Portfolio Decisions," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 13(02), pages ii15-ii54, December.
  7. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
  8. Bekker, Paul A, 1994. "Alternative Approximations to the Distributions of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 657-81, May.
  9. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2003. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1121-1159, 07.
  10. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  11. Boyce, James K., 1992. "The revolving door? External debt and capital flight: A Philippine case study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 335-349, March.
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