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Growth before and after trade liberalization

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  • Salinas, Gonzalo
  • Aksoy, Ataman

Abstract

The empirical study of the impact of trade liberalization has not convinced the skeptics about the economic gains after trade reforms. Some have even argued that trade reforms have led to economic collapse and to deindustrialization. Using a sample that excludes countries that were subject to major exogenous disruptions, the authors note that post-reform economic growth was 1.2 percentage points higher than before the reforms. This is remarkable considering that pre-reform periods were characterized by highly expansionary state policies and large external borrowing, and the crisis years that preceded trade liberalization in the comparisons are eliminated. Through multivariate fixed effects estimations the authors calculate that annual per capita GDP growth rates increased by up to 2.6 percentage points after the trade reforms, compared to a counterfactual that takes into consideration the evolution of several growth determinants. Moreover, trade liberalization has been followed by an acceleration of growth in investment, exports of goods and services, and manufacturing exports, and as opposed to common belief, outward orientation did not lead to significant deindustrialization and actually seems to have increased export diversification. Growth acceleration occurred irrespective of income per capita level and was quite significant in Sub-Saharan Africa. As expected, small countries benefited most from the reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Salinas, Gonzalo & Aksoy, Ataman, 2006. "Growth before and after trade liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4062, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mayasa Mkubwa Hamad & Burhan Ahmad Mtengwa & Stabua Abdul Babiker, 2014. "The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Economic Growth in Tanzania," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(5), pages 514-532, May.
    2. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
    3. Falvey, Rod & Foster, Neil & Greenaway, David, 2012. "Trade Liberalization, Economic Crises, and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2177-2193.
    4. Hakimi, Abdelaziz & Hamdi, Helmi, 2016. "Trade liberalization, FDI inflows, environmental quality and economic growth: A comparative analysis between Tunisia and Morocco," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1445-1456.
    5. Neil Foster, 2008. "The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Economic Growth: Evidence from a Quantile Regression Analysis," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 543-567, November.
    6. Łukasz Goczek, 2011. "International Openness and Social Development as Endogenous Determinants of Growth," Working Papers 2011-22, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    7. Pema Khandu, 2014. "Impact of trade liberalization on economic growth in small developing economies: Bhutan as a case study," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(5), pages 263-278, May.
    8. Daniel Sakyi & Jose Villaverde & Adolfo Maza & Krishna Reddy Chittedieonardo, 2012. "Trade Openness, Growth and Development: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel Cointegration Analysis for Middle-Income Countries," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, August.
    9. Macar Stoianov, 2008. "The impact of the trade and financial openness on the economic growth in the countries from the Eastern Europe," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 14, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    10. Anonymous, 2012. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 08, Issue 2," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 8(2).
    11. Campos, Nauro F & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2017. "Structural Reforms, Growth and Inequality: An Overview of Theory, Measurement and Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 11159, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Openness to international trade and economic growth: A cross-country empirical investigation," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Free Trade; Achieving Shared Growth; Trade Law; Trade Policy;

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