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Rules of thumb for evaluating preferential trading arrangements : evidence from computable general equilibrium assessments

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  • Glenn W. Harrison
  • Thomas F. Rutherford
  • Tarr,David

Abstract

Most interesting results on the welfare effects of regional arrangements are ambiguous at a theoretical level. Many questions only have quantitative answers that are specific to the particular structural features of the economy and the policy considered. So, to determine the impact of prospective regional arrangements governments often rely on a quantitative evaluation. Usually at the request of client governments of the World Bank, the authors have implemented many computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to inform policymakers. The authors summarize the main conclusions drawn from these studies. The principal conclusions are: 1) Countries excluded from a preferential trade arrangement almost always lose. 2) Market access is a key determinant of the net benefits of a preferential trade arrangement. 3) With a free trade agreement (FTA) the external tariff can be lowered such that a poor FTA becomes attractive. 4) For Southern countries, North-South agreements offer a beneficial increase in competition in their home markets, and involve little increase in the supply price of Northern country sales in Southern countries. 5) Multilateral trade liberalization results in significantly larger gains to the world than the network of regional arrangements. 6) For individual countries without high protection,"additive regionalism"will likely result in substantially larger gains than unilateral trade liberalization. 7) Tax replacement requirements reduce the set of desirable regional arrangements. 8) Trade taxes are often an inefficient source of tax revenue. 9) Trade liberalization should be expected to be pro-poor in developing countries, but results will be diverse at the household level so safety nets are important. 10) Dynamic effects to reverse conclusions regarding regionalism are not expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & Tarr,David, 2003. "Rules of thumb for evaluating preferential trading arrangements : evidence from computable general equilibrium assessments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3149, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3149
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Trade Reform in the Partially Liberalized Economy of Turkey," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 5, pages 95-121 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Riedel, James, 1988. "The Demand for LDC Exports of Manufactures: Estimates from Hong Kong," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(389), pages 138-148, March.
    3. Thomas F. Rutherford & David Tarr, 2017. "Regional Trading Arrangements for Chile: Do the Results Differ with a Dynamic Model?," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 18, pages 415-437 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Trade liberalization, poverty and efficient equity," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 11, pages 255-286 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. repec:wsi:wschap:9789813108448_0017 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr,David & Gurgel, Angelo, 2003. "Regional, multilateral, and unilateral trade policies on MERCOSUR for growth and poverty reduction in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3051, The World Bank.
    7. Jesper Jensen & David Tarr, 2014. "Trade, Exchange Rate, and Energy Pricing Reform in Iran: Potentially Large Efficiency Effects and Gains to the Poor," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 13, pages 307-326 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Economic implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 16, pages 395-404 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Ferdinand Bakoup & David Tarr, 2000. "The Economic Effects of Integration in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Some General Equilibrium Estimates for Cameroon," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 12(2), pages 161-190.
    10. Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 17, pages 389-414 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Quantifying The Uruguay Round," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 16, pages 363-388 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. David Dollar & Aart Kraay, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 22-49, February.
    13. Thomas F. Rutherford & E. Elisabet Rutstrom & David Tarr, 2014. "Morocco's free trade agreement with the EU: A quantitative assessment," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 17, pages 405-437 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-149, January.
    15. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2014. "Trade Policy Options for Chile: The Importance of Market Access," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 14, pages 329-359 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Glenn W Harrison & Thomas F Rutherford & David G Tarr, 1997. "Opciones de Política Comercial para Chile: Una Evaluación Cuantitativa," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 34(102), pages 101-137.
    17. Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2001. "Chile's regional arrangements and the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas : the importance of market access," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2634, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jaime MELO DE, 2005. "Regionalism and Developing Countries: A Primer," Working Papers 200510, CERDI.
    2. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Wusheng Yu, 2007. "Agricultural trade liberalization in the Asia-Pacific region with specific reference to preferential trade agreements - scenario and impact analysis," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT,in: Studies in Trade and Investment - AGRICULTURAL TRADE - PLANTING THE SEEDS OF REGIONAL LIBERALIZATION IN ASIA, volume 60, pages 131-162 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    3. Waschik, Robert, 2009. "The effects of free trade areas on non-members: Modelling Kemp-Vanek admissibility," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 648-663, September.
    4. Kokko, Ari & Mathä, Thomas & Gustavsson Tingvall, Patrik, 2006. "Regional Integration And Trade Diversion In Europe," EIJS Working Paper Series 231, Stockholm School of Economics, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
    5. Sebastian Hess & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, 2007. "Meta-analysis of general and partial equilibrium simulations of Doha Round outcomes," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 281-286, December.
    6. Rafael Cornejo & Jaime Granados, 2006. "Convergence in the Americas: Some Lessons from the DR-CAFTA process," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2438, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Rafael Cornejo & Jaime Granados, 2006. "Convergence in the Americas: Some Lessons from the DR-CAFTA process," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9247, Inter-American Development Bank.

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