Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable?
By assessing the sustainability of regional trade agreements (RTAs) for East Asia, we quantitatively evaluate the likely impact of proposed East Asian RTA strategies on the East Asian economies and the world economy with respect to consumption, production, volume of trade and terms of trade effects by applying a multi-country and multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. These strategies include: (i) the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA: a being-left-alone strategy); (ii) an ASEAN Hub RTA (a hub-and-spoke type of overlapping RTA strategy); (iii) the AFTA versus a China-Japan-Korea RTA (a duplicating or competing RTA strategy); and (iv) an ASEAN+3 RTA (an expansionary RTA strategy). We find that an expansionary ASEAN+3 RTA could be a sustainable policy option because the members' gains would be significantly positive, with more equitably distributed gains between members than when using other strategies. The effect on world welfare would also be positive and the negative effect on nonmembers would not be very strong. More interestingly, if the East Asian countries cooperate with Pacific Basin countries to form an APEC-level RTA, such as a free trade area of the Asia-Pacific, the extension of the regional trade bloc might be considered a more desirable policy option than the proposed East Asian RTAs for East Asian economies, even though countries excluded from the free trade area of the Asia Pacific are worse off. Copyright 2009 The Author. Journal compilation 2009 East Asian Economic Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 23 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (06)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1351-3958|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1351-3958|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Masaru Umemoto, 2003. "Hub and spoke integration and income convergence," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 249-249, August.
- Robert Scollay & John P. Gilbert, 2001.
"New Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia Pacific?,"
Peterson Institute Press: All Books,
Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa63.
- Robert Scollay & John P. Gilbert, 2001. "New Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia Pacific?," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa63, December.
- Lee, Jong-Wha & Shin, Kwanho, 2006.
"Does regionalism lead to more global trade integration in East Asia?,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 283-301, December.
- Lee, Jong-Wha & Shin, Kwanho, 2005. "Does Regionalism Lead to More Global Trade Integration in East Asia?," MPRA Paper 706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bhagwati, Jagdish & Greenaway, David & Panagariya, Arvind, 1998. "Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1128-48, July.
- Sulamaa, Pekka & Widgrén, Mika, 2005. "Asian Regionalism versus Global Free Trade: A Simulation Study on Economic Effects," Discussion Papers 985, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Jong-Wha Lee & Innwon Park, 2005. "Free Trade Areas in East Asia: Discriminatory or Non-discriminatory?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 21-48, 01.
- Shujiro Urata & Kozo Kiyota, 2003. "The Impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia," NBER Working Papers 10173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard Baldwin, 1993.
"A Domino Theory of Regionalism,"
NBER Working Papers
4465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jong-Wha Lee & Innwon Park & Kwanho Shin, 2005.
"Proliferating Regional Trade Arrangements: Why and Whither?,"
- Jong-Wha Lee & Innwon Park & Kwanho Shin, 2008. "Proliferating Regional Trade Arrangements: Why and Whither?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1525-1557, December.
- Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan, 2005. "Preferential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 05/149, International Monetary Fund.
- Warwick McKibbin & Jong-Wha Lee & Inkyo Cheong, 2004. "A dynamic analysis of the Korea-Japan free trade area: simulations with the G-cubed Asia-Pacific model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 3-32.
- McKibbin, W.J., 1997. "Regional and Multiregional Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare," Papers 134, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
- Peter Lloyd, 2002. "New Bilateralism in the Asia-Pacific," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(9), pages 1279-1296, 09.
- repec:kap:iaecre:v:9:y:2003:i:3:p:249-249 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:23:y:2009:i:2:p:169-194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.