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The Multifactor Nature of the Volatility of the Eurodollar Futures Market

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This paper seeks to estimate a multifactor volatility model so as to describe the dynamics of interest rate markets, using data from the highly liquid but short term futures markets. The difficult problem of estimating such multifactor models is resolved by using a genetic algorithm to carry out the optimization procedure. The ability to successfully estimate a multifactor volatility model also eliminates the need to include a jump component, the existence of which would create difficulties in the practical use of interest rate models, such as pricing options or producing forecasts.

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File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp150.pdf
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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 150.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:150
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  1. Lina El-Jahel & Hans Lindberg & William Perraudin, 1996. "Interest Rate Distributions, Yield Curve Modelling and Monetary Policy," Archive Working Papers 021, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  2. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
  3. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Pennacchi, George G, 1996. "The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar Futures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 426-46, August.
  4. Amin, Kaushik I. & Morton, Andrew J., 1994. "Implied volatility functions in arbitrage-free term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 141-180, April.
  5. Carl Chiarella & Thuy‐Duong Tô, 2003. "The jump component of the volatility structure of interest rate futures markets: An international comparison," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(12), pages 1125-1158, December.
  6. Moraleda, Juan M. & Vorst, Ton C. F., 1997. "Pricing American interest rate claims with humped volatility models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(8), pages 1131-1157, August.
  7. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
  8. Andrew W. Lo, 1986. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
  10. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  11. Tomas Björk & Yuri Kabanov & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 1997. "Bond Market Structure in the Presence of Marked Point Processes," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 211-239.
  12. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
  13. Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Yields and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 311-344, April.
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