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The Jump Component of the Volatility Structure of Interest Rate Futures Markets: An International Comparison

Author

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  • To, Thuy Duong

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Carl Chiarella

Abstract

We propose a generalization of the Shirakawa (1991) model to capture the jump component in fixed income markets. The model is formulated under the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) framework, and allows the presence of a Wiener noise and a finite number of Poisson noises, each associated with a time deterministic volatility function. We derive the evolution of the futures price and use this evolution to estimate the model parameters via the likelihood transformation technique of Duan (1994). We apply the method to the short term futures contracts traded on CME, SFE, LIFFE and TIFFE, and find that each market is characterized by very different behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • To, Thuy Duong & Carl Chiarella, 2003. "The Jump Component of the Volatility Structure of Interest Rate Futures Markets: An International Comparison," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 205, Royal Economic Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:205
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl Chiarella & Christina Nikitopoulos Sklibosios & Erik Schlögl, 2007. "A Markovian Defaultable Term Structure Model With State Dependent Volatilities," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 155-202.
    2. Thomas Busch & Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2006. "The Information Content of Treasury Bond Options Concerning Future Volatility and Price Jumps," Working Papers 1188, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    3. Carl Chiarella & Christina Sklibosios, 2003. "A Class of Jump-Diffusion Bond Pricing Models within the HJM Framework," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 10(2), pages 87-127, September.
    4. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Thuy-Duong To, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility Structure of an Arbitrage-Free Interest Rate Model Via the Futures Markets," Finance 0409003, EconWPA.
    5. Carl Chiarella & Christina Nikitopoulos Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2007. "A Control Variate Method for Monte Carlo Simulations of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models with Jumps," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 365-399.
    6. Carl Chiarella & Thuy-Duong Tô, 2006. "The Multifactor Nature of the Volatility of Futures Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 163-183, May.
    7. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:359-373 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Carl Chiarella & Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Erik Schlogl, 2005. "A Control Variate Method for Monte Carlo Simulations of Heath-Jarrow-Morton with Jumps," Research Paper Series 167, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios, 2005. "A Class of Markovian Models for the Term Structure of Interest Rates Under Jump-Diffusions," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6.
    10. Carl Chiarella & Thuy-Duong To, 2005. "The Multifactor Nature of the Volatility of the Eurodollar Futures Market," Research Paper Series 150, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    term structure; Heath-Jarrow-Morton; Jump-diffusion; FIML; likelihood transformation; interest rate futures;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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