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Hyperinflation bulgare de 1997 : transition, fragilité bancaire et change

Listed author(s):
  • Sébastien Charles


    (Laboratoire d’Economie Dionysien - Université Paris 8)

  • Jonathan Marie


    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

Cet article suit deux objectifs : étudier l’hyperinflation bulgare de 1997 et confronter cette analyse à l’approche théorique post-keynésienne. Celle-ci met en avant le rôle de trois composantes observées simultanément afin de saisir l’apparition de l’hyperinflation : un conflit de répartition virulent, la présence de mécanismes d’indexation et finalement, la fuite devant la monnaie domestique au profit d’une ou plusieurs devise(s). L’article révèle qu’une économie en transition comme la Bulgarie des années 1990 est susceptible de générer de l’hyperinflation en l’absence d’un conflit de répartition violent : la transition ainsi que la crise bancaire engendrent l’inflation. Le taux de change, quant à lui, est décisif dans l’apparition de la dynamique hyperinflationniste (et donc la défiance envers la monnaie domestique). Enfin, cette interprétation de l’hyperinflation est vérifiée par une analyse économétrique.

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Paper provided by Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord in its series CEPN Working Papers with number 2016-13.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2016
Handle: RePEc:upn:wpaper:2016-13
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  1. Berlemann, Michael & Nenovsky, Nikolay, 2003. "Lending of first versus lending of last resort: The Bulgarian financial crisis of 1996/1997," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 11/03, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  2. Stefka Slavova, 2003. "Money demand during hyperinflation and stabilization: Bulgaria, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1303-1316.
  3. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
  4. Kolodko, Grzegorz W & McMahon, Walter W, 1987. "Stagflation and Shortageflation: A Comparative Approach," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 176-197.
  5. Michael Berlemann & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2004. "Lending of First versus Lending of Last Resort: The Bulgarian Financial Crisis of 1996/19971," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(2), pages 245-271, June.
  6. Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2000. "The Transition Crisis in Bulgaria," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 581-602, September.
  7. Marie, Jonathan, 2014. "Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 15.
  8. Philip Arestis & William Milberg, 1994. "Degree of Monopoly, Pricing, and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 16(2), pages 167-188, January.
  9. Vahabi, Mehrdad, 2003. "La contrainte budgétaire lâche et la théorie économique
    [Soft Budget Constraint and Economic Theory]
    ," MPRA Paper 17651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Mario Cassetti, 2003. "Bargaining power, effective demand and technical progress: a Kaleckian model of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 449-464, May.
  11. CLIFFORD S. POIROT Jr., 2003. "Did the currency board resolve Bulgaria's financial crisis of 1996-97?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 26(1), pages 27-55, October.
  12. Jonathan Marie & Sébastien Charles, 2016. "Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: a Post-Keynesian view," Post-Print hal-01377937, HAL.
  13. Eduardo Borensztein & Dimitri G. Demekas & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1993. "An Empirical Analysis of the Output Declines in Three Eastern European Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, March.
  14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  15. Setterfield, Mark, 2007. "The rise, decline and rise of incomes policies in the US during the post-war era: an institutional-analytical explanation of inflation and the functional distribution of income," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 127-146, August.
  16. Andrej Susjan & Marko Lah, 1997. "Inflation in the Transition Economies: the post-Keynesian view," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 381-393.
  17. Anne Marie Gulde, 1999. "The Role of the Currency Board in Bulgaria's Stabilization," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/3, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Richard Burdekin & Paul Burkett, 1998. "Economic history and econometrics: a cautionary note from the hyperinflation front," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 251-254.
  19. Sonya Dilova-Kirkowa, 1999. "Corporate Governance in Bulgarian State-owned Banks, 1992-1997," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 253-265.
  20. Michael, P & Nobay, A R & Peel, D A, 1994. "The German Hyperinflation and the Demand for Money Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February.
  21. Stijn Claessens & R. Kyle Peters, 1997. "State enterprise performance and soft budget constraints: The case of Bulgaria," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(2), pages 305-322, November.
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