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Hyperinflation bulgare de 1997 : transition, fragilité bancaire et change

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Charles

    (Laboratoire d’Economie Dionysien - Université Paris 8)

  • Jonathan Marie

    (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN))

Abstract

Cet article suit deux objectifs : étudier l’hyperinflation bulgare de 1997 et confronter cette analyse à l’approche théorique post-keynésienne. Celle-ci met en avant le rôle de trois composantes observées simultanément afin de saisir l’apparition de l’hyperinflation : un conflit de répartition virulent, la présence de mécanismes d’indexation et finalement, la fuite devant la monnaie domestique au profit d’une ou plusieurs devise(s). L’article révèle qu’une économie en transition comme la Bulgarie des années 1990 est susceptible de générer de l’hyperinflation en l’absence d’un conflit de répartition violent : la transition ainsi que la crise bancaire engendrent l’inflation. Le taux de change, quant à lui, est décisif dans l’apparition de la dynamique hyperinflationniste (et donc la défiance envers la monnaie domestique). Enfin, cette interprétation de l’hyperinflation est vérifiée par une analyse économétrique.

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation bulgare de 1997 : transition, fragilité bancaire et change," CEPN Working Papers 2016-13, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    • Handle: RePEc:upn:wpaper:2016-13
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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices

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