IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rripxx/v28y2021i3p528-558.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Israel avoided hyperinflation. The success of its 1985 stabilization plan in the light of post-Keynesian theory

Author

Listed:
  • Sébastien Charles
  • Jonathan Marie

Abstract

This article uses a post-Keynesian framework to analyse the inflationary process at work from 1948 until the 1980s in an attempt to understand the origins of the near-hyperinflation of the first semester 1985 and the success of the stabilization plan introduced that same summer. In 1985 the shekel seems to have been entirely abandoned by its users for the U.S. dollar, which, in the context of high inflation of the time should have caused hyperinflation. Such an outcome results from the conjunction of several factors: the historic virulence of the distribution conflict, the presence of indexation mechanisms, and the fragility of the balance of payments marked by a structural current deficit. The stabilization plan, supported by substantial U.S. financial aid, immediately attenuated the external financing constraint and lastingly eased the distribution conflict, thereby averting the hyperinflationary risks. Analysis of this historical trajectory confirms the theoretical coherence of the post-Keynesian analysis of hyperinflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "How Israel avoided hyperinflation. The success of its 1985 stabilization plan in the light of post-Keynesian theory," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 528-558, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rripxx:v:28:y:2021:i:3:p:528-558
    DOI: 10.1080/09692290.2019.1699146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09692290.2019.1699146
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09692290.2019.1699146?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Schiffman & Warren Young & Yaron Zelekha, 2017. "The Role of Economic Advisers in Israel's Economic Policy," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-60682-8, November.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Marc Lavoie, 2014. "Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations," Post-Print hal-01343652, HAL.
    4. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: A post Keynesian view," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 361-386, July.
    5. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    6. Akiva (Edward) Offenbacher & Roy Stein, 2003. "Dollarisation and Indexation in Israel's Inflation and Disinflation: ‘There's more than one way to skin a cat’," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 278-305, September.
    7. Marie, Jonathan, 2014. "Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 15.
    8. Philip Arestis & William Milberg, 1994. "Degree of Monopoly, Pricing, and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 16(2), pages 167-188, January.
    9. Mario Cassetti, 2003. "Bargaining power, effective demand and technical progress: a Kaleckian model of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 449-464, May.
    10. Michael Bruno, 1989. "Israel's Crisis and Economic Reform: A Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 3075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2017. "Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 313-335, July.
    12. Andrej Susjan & Marko Lah, 1997. "Inflation in the Transition Economies: the post-Keynesian view," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 381-393.
    13. Leonardo Vera, 2013. "A note on the Pazos-Simonsen mechanism and Kaldor s early research on Latin American inflation," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 33(2), pages 260-280.
    14. Cukierman, Alex & Melnick, Rafi, 2015. "The Conquest of Israeli Inflation and Current Policy Dilemmas," CEPR Discussion Papers 10955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Achdut, Lea, 1996. "Income Inequality, Income Composition and Macroeconomic Trends: Israel, 1979-93," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(250), pages 1-27, Suppl..
    16. J. Prager, 1996. "Banking privatisation in Israel, 1983-1994: a case study in political economy," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 209-240.
    17. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: A post Keynesian view," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 361-386, July.
    18. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    19. Asher A. Blass & Richard S. Grossman, 1998. "Who Needs Glass‐Steagall? Evidence From Israel'S Bank Shares Crisis And The Great Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(2), pages 185-196, April.
    20. Don Patinkin, 1993. "Israel's Stabilization Program of 1985, or Some Simple Truths of Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 103-128, Spring.
    21. Mark Blyth & Matthias Matthijs, 2017. "Black Swans, Lame Ducks, and the mystery of IPE's missing macroeconomy," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 203-231, March.
    22. Setterfield, Mark, 2007. "The rise, decline and rise of incomes policies in the US during the post-war era: an institutional-analytical explanation of inflation and the functional distribution of income," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 127-146, August.
    23. Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Studying Texts: A Gemara of the Israeli Economy," NBER Working Papers 11352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Nitzan, Jonathan & Bichler, Shimshon, 2000. "Inflation and Accumulation. The Case of Israel," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 274-309.
    25. Bruno, Michael & Sussman, Zvi, 1979. "Exchange-rate flexibility, inflation, and structural change : Israel Under Alternative Regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 483-514, November.
    26. Thomas Sargent & Joseph Zeira, 2011. "Israel 1983: A bout of unpleasant monetarist arithmetic?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(3), pages 419-431, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kulesza, Marta, 2017. "Inflation and hyperinflation in Venezuela (1970s-2016): A post-Keynesian interpretation," IPE Working Papers 93/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2017. "Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 313-335, July.
    3. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation bulgare de 1997 : transition, fragilité bancaire et change," CEPN Working Papers 2016-13, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    4. Marie, Jonathan, 2014. "Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 15.
    5. Jonathan Marie & Sébastien Charles, 2018. "Comment Israël a évité l’hyperinflation ? Le succès du plan de stabilisation (1985) à la lumière de la théorie post-keynésienne," Working Papers hal-01937054, HAL.
    6. Sébastien Charles & Eduardo Figueiredo Bastian & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "Inflation Regimes and Hyperinflation. A Post-Keynesian/Structuralist typology," CEPN Working Papers hal-03363240, HAL.
    7. Eduardo F Bastian & Mark Setterfield, 2020. "Nominal exchange rate shocks and inflation in an open economy: towards a structuralist inflation targeting agenda," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1271-1299.
    8. Bortz Pablo Gabriel & Michelena Gabriel & Toledo Fernando, 2018. "Foreign debt, conflicting claims and income policies in a Kaleckian model of growth and distribution," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Eduardo F. Bastian & Mark Setterfield, 2015. "A simple analytical model of the adverse real effects of inflation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 637-665, November.
    10. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Inflation and distribution during the post-COVID recovery: a Kaleckian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 587-611, October.
    11. Nah, Won Jun & Lavoie, Marc, 2019. "The role of autonomous demand growth in a neo-Kaleckian conflicting-claims framework’," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 427-444.
    12. Parui, Pintu, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Financialization and the Wage Gap between Blue and White Collar Workers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 416-443.
    13. Pintu Parui, 2023. "Worker household debt, functional income distribution and growth: A neo‐Kaleckian perspective," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 446-476, May.
    14. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2020. "A Note on the Competing Causes of High Inflation in Bulgaria during the 1990s: Money Supply or Exchange Rate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 433-443, July.
    15. Marie, Jonathan, 2011. "Quelle trajectoire macroéconomique adoptée par l’Argentine depuis la crise de 2001 ? Enjeux et limites de la stratégie actuelle," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 87(1), pages 85-113, mars.
    16. Cherkasky, Martín & Abeles, Martín, 2019. "Monetary regimes and labour institutions: an alternative interpretation of the downward trend in exchange-rate passthrough in peripheral countries," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    17. Markus Brueckner & Ngo Van Long & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2020. "Non-Gravity Trade," Globalization Institute Working Papers 388, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2020. "Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 279-332.
    19. Georgios Georgiadis & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Monetary policy spillovers, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility, and the financial channel of exchange rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_009, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    20. Santiago Camara, 2021. "Spillovers of US Interest Rates: Monetary Policy & Information Effects," Papers 2111.08631, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rripxx:v:28:y:2021:i:3:p:528-558. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rrip20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.