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Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange

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  • Sébastien Charles
  • Jonathan Marie

Abstract

This article has two objectives: to study the 1997 episode of hyperinflation in Bulgaria, and to compare and contrast this analysis with the post-Keynesian theoretical approach. This approach highlights the role of three components observed simultaneously in order to understand the emergence of hyperinflation: a virulent distributive conflict; the presence of indexing mechanisms; and finally, flight from domestic currency into one or more foreign currencies. The article reveals that a transitional economy like that of Bulgaria in the 1990s may generate hyperinflation in the absence of any violent distribution conflict: the transition and the banking crisis engender inflation. The foreign exchange rate is decisive in the emergence of hyperinflationary dynamics (and therefore mistrust of domestic currency). This interpretation of hyperinflation is confirmed by an econometric analysis.

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  • Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2017. "Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 313-335, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:29:y:2017:i:3:p:313-335
    DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2017.1339476
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    1. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: A post Keynesian view," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 361-386, July.
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    2. Kulesza, Marta, 2017. "Inflation and hyperinflation in Venezuela (1970s-2016): A post-Keynesian interpretation," IPE Working Papers 93/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    3. Ali Shaddady, 2022. "Is Government Spending an Important Factor in Economic Growth? Nonlinear Cubic Quantile Nexus from Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-26, November.

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