IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/76459.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

L’hyperinflation Bulgare de 1997 : Transition, Fragilité Bancaire et Change
[Bulgaria’s Hyperinflation in 1997: Transition, Banking Fragility, and Foreign Exchange]

Author

Listed:
  • Charles, Sébastien
  • Marie, Jonathan

Abstract

This article has two objectives: to study the 1997 episode of hyperinflation in Bulgaria and to compare and contrast this analysis with the post-Keynesian theoretical approach. This approach highlights the role of three components observed simultaneously in order to understand the emergence of hyperinflation: a virulent distribution conflict, the presence of indexing mechanisms, and finally flight from domestic currency into one or more foreign currencies. The article reveals that a transitional economy like that of Bulgaria in the 1990s may generate hyperinflation in the absence of any violent distribution conflict: the transition and the banking crisis engender inflation. The foreign exchange rate is decisive in the emergence of hyperinflationary dynamics (and therefore mistrust of domestic currency). Lastly, this interpretation of hyperinflation is confirmed by an econometric analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles, Sébastien & Marie, Jonathan, 2017. "L’hyperinflation Bulgare de 1997 : Transition, Fragilité Bancaire et Change [Bulgaria’s Hyperinflation in 1997: Transition, Banking Fragility, and Foreign Exchange]," MPRA Paper 76459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:76459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/76459/2/MPRA_paper_76459.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: A post Keynesian view," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 361-386, July.
    2. Dobrinsky, Rumen, 2000. "The Transition Crisis in Bulgaria," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 24(5), pages 581-602, September.
    3. Marie, Jonathan, 2014. "Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 15.
    4. Philip Arestis & William Milberg, 1994. "Degree of Monopoly, Pricing, and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 16(2), pages 167-188, January.
    5. Vahabi, Mehrdad, 2003. "La contrainte budgétaire lâche et la théorie économique [Soft Budget Constraint and Economic Theory]," MPRA Paper 17651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mario Cassetti, 2003. "Bargaining power, effective demand and technical progress: a Kaleckian model of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 27(3), pages 449-464, May.
    7. Eduardo Borensztein & Dimitri G. Demekas & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1993. "An Empirical Analysis of the Output Declines in Three Eastern European Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 1-31, March.
    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Andrej Susjan & Marko Lah, 1997. "Inflation in the Transition Economies: the post-Keynesian view," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 381-393.
    10. M. Berlemann & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2003. "Lending of First Versus Lending of Last Resort: The Bulgarian Financial Crisis of 1996/1997," Post-Print halshs-00260241, HAL.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6961 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Richard Burdekin & Paul Burkett, 1998. "Economic history and econometrics: a cautionary note from the hyperinflation front," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 251-254.
    13. Taylor Lance, 1994. "The Market Met Its Match: Lessons for the Future from the Transition's Initial Years," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 64-87, August.
    14. Sonya Dilova-Kirkowa, 1999. "Corporate Governance in Bulgarian State-owned Banks, 1992-1997," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 253-265.
    15. Michael, P & Nobay, A R & Peel, D A, 1994. "The German Hyperinflation and the Demand for Money Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February.
    16. Stijn Claessens & R. Kyle Peters, 1997. "State enterprise performance and soft budget constraints: The case of Bulgaria," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(2), pages 305-322, November.
    17. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2016. "Hyperinflation in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: A post Keynesian view," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 361-386, July.
    18. Stefka Slavova, 2003. "Money demand during hyperinflation and stabilization: Bulgaria, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1303-1316.
    19. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    20. Kolodko, Grzegorz W & McMahon, Walter W, 1987. "Stagflation and Shortageflation: A Comparative Approach," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 176-197.
    21. Michael Berlemann & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2004. "Lending of First versus Lending of Last Resort: The Bulgarian Financial Crisis of 1996/19971," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(2), pages 245-271, June.
    22. Paul Davidson & Jan A. Kregel (ed.), 1991. "Economic PROBLEMS OF THE 1990s," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 123.
    23. CLIFFORD S. POIROT Jr., 2003. "Did the currency board resolve Bulgaria's financial crisis of 1996-97?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 27-55.
    24. Setterfield, Mark, 2007. "The rise, decline and rise of incomes policies in the US during the post-war era: an institutional-analytical explanation of inflation and the functional distribution of income," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 127-146, August.
    25. Ms. Anne Marie Gulde, 1999. "The Role of the Currency Board in Bulgaria's Stabilization," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1999/003, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2017. "Bulgaria’s hyperinflation in 1997: transition, banking fragility and foreign exchange," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 313-335, July.
    2. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "How Israel avoided hyperinflation. The success of its 1985 stabilization plan in the light of post-Keynesian theory," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 528-558, May.
    3. Kulesza, Marta, 2017. "Inflation and hyperinflation in Venezuela (1970s-2016): A post-Keynesian interpretation," IPE Working Papers 93/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    4. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2020. "A Note on the Competing Causes of High Inflation in Bulgaria during the 1990s: Money Supply or Exchange Rate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 433-443, July.
    5. Marie, Jonathan, 2014. "Hyperinflation argentine de 1989 : une interprétation post-keynésienne," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 15.
    6. Neven Valev & John Carlson, 2007. "Beliefs about Exchange‐Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 111-121.
    7. Sébastien Charles & Eduardo Figueiredo Bastian & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "Inflation Regimes and Hyperinflation. A Post-Keynesian/Structuralist typology," CEPN Working Papers hal-03363240, HAL.
    8. Pintu Parui, 2023. "Worker household debt, functional income distribution and growth: A neo‐Kaleckian perspective," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 446-476, May.
    9. Eduardo F Bastian & Mark Setterfield, 2020. "Nominal exchange rate shocks and inflation in an open economy: towards a structuralist inflation targeting agenda," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1271-1299.
    10. Bortz Pablo Gabriel & Michelena Gabriel & Toledo Fernando, 2018. "Foreign debt, conflicting claims and income policies in a Kaleckian model of growth and distribution," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Marie, Jonathan, 2011. "Quelle trajectoire macroéconomique adoptée par l’Argentine depuis la crise de 2001 ? Enjeux et limites de la stratégie actuelle," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 87(1), pages 85-113, mars.
    12. Parui, Pintu, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Financialization and the Wage Gap between Blue and White Collar Workers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 416-443.
    13. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    14. Stefka Slavova, 2003. "Money demand during hyperinflation and stabilization: Bulgaria, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1303-1316.
    15. Berlemann, Michael & Hielscher, Kai, 2009. "Measuring Effective Monetary Policy Conservatism," Working Paper 89/2009, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    16. Minea, Alexandru & Rault, Christophe, 2011. "External monetary shocks and monetary integration: Evidence from the Bulgarian currency board," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2271-2281, September.
    17. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2012. "Is the long-run equilibrium wage-led or profit-led? A Kaleckian approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 231-244.
    18. Hein, Eckhard, 2011. "Distribution, ‘Financialisation’ and the Financial and Economic Crisis – Implications for Post-crisis Economic Policies," MPRA Paper 31180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2007. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 111-121.
    20. Nenovsky, Nikolay & MIlev, Jeko, 2014. "Bulgarian Welfare System (1989 – 2014) During the Transition and the Crisis," MPRA Paper 62039, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    hyperinflation; change; transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:76459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.