IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/upj/weupjo/21-339.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Long-Run Effects of Local Demand Shocks on Employment Rates Vary with Local Labor Market Distress

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper estimates that long-run changes in a county’s prime-age employment rate are significantly affected by labor demand shocks to both the county and its overlying commuting zone (CZ). The overall benefits of labor demand shocks are due more to CZ demand shocks than county demand shocks. A lower preexisting county employment rate increases the effects of CZ demand shocks. Simulations suggest that low prior employment rate CZs, versus higher-rate CZs, will have much larger employment rate effects from demand shocks. Targeting jobs at more distressed counties within a CZ has modest effects, much lower than the effects of targeting jobs at more distressed CZs.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Bartik, 2021. "How Long-Run Effects of Local Demand Shocks on Employment Rates Vary with Local Labor Market Distress," Upjohn Working Papers 21-339, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:21-339
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1358&context=up_workingpapers
    Download Restriction: This material is copyrighted. Permission is required to reproduce any or all parts.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2019. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-178, September.
    3. Beaudry, Paul & Green, David A. & Sand, Benjamin M., 2014. "Spatial equilibrium with unemployment and wage bargaining: Theory and estimation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 2-19.
    4. Haveman, Robert H. & Weimer, David L., 2015. "Public Policy Induced Changes in Employment: Valuation Issues for Benefit-Cost Analysis," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 112-153, April.
    5. Christopher S Fowler & Leif Jensen, 2020. "Bridging the gap between geographic concept and the data we have: The case of labor markets in the USA," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(7), pages 1395-1414, October.
    6. Alexandre Mas & Amanda Pallais, 2019. "Labor Supply and the Value of Non-work Time: Experimental Estimates from the Field," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 111-126, June.
    7. Rowthorn Robert & Glyn Andrew J, 2006. "Convergence and Stability in U.S. Employment Rates," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43, April.
    8. Jacob Bastian & Katherine Michelmore, 2018. "The Long-Term Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Children’s Education and Employment Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(4), pages 1127-1163.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arntz, Melanie & Ivanov, Boris & Pohlan, Laura, 2022. "Regional Structural Change and the Effects of Job Loss," IZA Discussion Papers 15313, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bartik, Timothy J., 2024. "Long-run effects on county employment rates of demand shocks to county and commuting zone employment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Timothy J. Bartik, 2020. "Using Place-Based Jobs Policies to Help Distressed Communities," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 99-127, Summer.
    3. Timothy J. Bartik, 2015. "How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with the Initial Local Unemployment Rate," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 529-557, December.
    4. Bastian, Jacob E. & Black, Dan A., 2024. "Relaxing financial constraints with tax credits and migrating out of rural and distressed America," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    5. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & M. Rose Olfert & Ying Tan, 2015. "When Spatial Equilibrium Fails: Is Place-Based Policy Second Best?," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(8), pages 1303-1325, August.
    6. Sengupta, Shruti & Azam, Mehtabul, 2022. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Marriage and Fertility: Evidence from Indian Census," IZA Discussion Papers 15841, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. David Neumark & Brian Asquith & Brittany Bass, 2020. "Longer‐Run Effects Of Anti‐Poverty Policies On Disadvantaged Neighborhoods," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 409-434, July.
    8. Mike Zabek, 2024. "Local Ties in Spatial Equilibrium," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 287-317, April.
    9. Sarah Xue Dong, 2021. "The effect of labour demand on women’s intra-household decision power: Evidence from Indonesia," Departmental Working Papers 2021-01, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    10. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Michael Amior & Alan Manning, 2018. "The Persistence of Local Joblessness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(7), pages 1942-1970, July.
    12. Lennon, Conor, 2023. "Women’s educational attainment, marriage, and fertility: Evidence from the 1944 G.I. Bill," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Jelle Barkema, 2019. "Stranded! How Rising Inequality Suppressed US Migration and Hurt Those Left Behind," IMF Working Papers 2019/122, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Dow, William H. & Godøy, Anna & Lowenstein, Christopher & Reich, Michael, 2020. "Can Labor Market Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Betz, Michael R. & Partridge, Mark D. & Farren, Michael & Lobao, Linda, 2015. "Coal mining, economic development, and the natural resources curse," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-116.
    16. Eric D. Gould, 2021. "Torn Apart? The Impact of Manufacturing Employment Decline on Black and White Americans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 770-785, October.
    17. Laura Barros & Manuel Santos Silva, 2019. "#EleNão: Economic crisis, the political gender gap, and the election of Bolsonaro," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 242, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Colmer, Jonathan & Voorheis, John, 2020. "The grandkids aren't alright: the intergenerational effects of prenatal pollution exposure," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108495, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. David A. Green, 2015. "Chasing after “good jobs.” Do they exist and does it matter if they do?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 1215-1265, November.
    20. Timothy J. Bartik, 2012. "The Future of State and Local Economic Development Policy: What Research Is Needed," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 545-562, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local labor markets; job creation benefits; local labor demand; regional distress;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:21-339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/upjohus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.