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How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with Local Labor Market Conditions

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This paper estimates how effects of shocks to local labor demand on local labor market outcomes vary with initial local economic conditions. The data are on U.S. metro areas from 1979 to 2011. The paper finds that demand shocks to local job growth have greater effects in reducing local unemployment rates if the local economy is initially depressed than if the local economy is booming. Demand shocks have greater effects on local wage rates if the local unemployment rate is initially low, but lesser effects if local job growth is initially high. These different effects of local demand shocks imply that social benefits of adding jobs are two to three times greater per job in more depressed local labor markets, compared to more booming local labor markets.

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  • Timothy J. Bartik, 2014. "How Effects of Local Labor Demand Shocks Vary with Local Labor Market Conditions," Upjohn Working Papers 14-202, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:14-202
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    3. Mathieu Sanch-Maritan & Lionel Vedrine, 2019. "Are larger labor market more resilient? Evidence of the French army restructuring on exit from unemployment," Working Papers hal-02332809, HAL.
    4. Luis E. Arango & Francesca Castellani & Nataly Obando, 2016. "It is mainly about where you work! Labor demand in the Colombian manufacturing sector," Borradores de Economia 933, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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