IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ums/papers/2014-03.html

Real wages and labor-saving technical change: evidence from a panel of manufacturing industries in mature and labor-surplus economies

Author

Listed:
  • Joao Paulo A. de Souza

    (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst)

Abstract

This paper uses panel cointegration and error correction models to unveil the direction of long-run causality between the real product wage and labor productivity at the industry level. I use two datasets of manufacturing industries: the EU-Klems dataset covering 11 industries in 19 developed economies, and the Unido Industrial Statistics Database covering 22 industries in 30 developed and developing economies. In both datasets, I find evidence of cointegration between the two variables, as well as evidence of two-way, long-run Granger causality. These findings are consistent with theories of directed technical change, which claim that a rise in labor costs sparks the adoption of labor-saving innovations. They are also consistent with distributive theories whereby real wages keep apace of labor productivity growth, giving rise to long-run stability in functional distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Paulo A. de Souza, 2014. "Real wages and labor-saving technical change: evidence from a panel of manufacturing industries in mature and labor-surplus economies," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2014-03, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2014-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.umass.edu/economics/publications/2014-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Adalmir Marquetti, 2004. "Do Rising Real Wages Increase The Rate Of Labor‐Saving Technical Change? Some Econometric Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 432-441, November.
    3. Amartya K. Sen, 1966. "Peasants and Dualism with or without Surplus Labor," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(5), pages 425-425.
    4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    5. Rada, Codrina & Taylor, Lance, 2006. "Empty sources of growth accounting, and empirical replacements a la Kaldor and Goodwin with some beef," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 486-500, December.
    6. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    7. Marquetti, Adalmir A., 2003. "Analyzing historical and regional patterns of technical change from a classical-Marxian perspective," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 191-200, October.
    8. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-1026, October.
    9. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    10. Deepankar Basu & Ying Chen & Jong-seok Oh, 2013. "Class struggle and economic fluctuations: VAR analysis of the post-war US economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 575-596, September.
    11. Daron Acemoglu, 2003. "Labor- And Capital-Augmenting Technical Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-37, March.
    12. Adalmir Marquetti & Eduardo Maldonado Filho & Vladimir Lautert, 2010. "The Profit Rate in Brazil, 1953-2003," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 485-504, December.
    13. Deepankar Basu, 2010. "Marx‐Biased Technical Change And The Neoclassical View Of Income Distribution," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 593-620, November.
    14. Armon Rezai, 2012. "Goodwin Cycles, Distributional Conflict And Productivity Growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 29-39, February.
    15. Tavani, Daniele, 2012. "Wage bargaining and induced technical change in a linear economy: Model and application to the US (1963–2003)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 117-126.
    16. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    17. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    18. Robert S. Chirinko & Steven M. Fazzari & Andrew P. Meyer, 2011. "A New Approach to Estimating Production Function Parameters: The Elusive Capital--Labor Substitution Elasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 587-594, October.
    19. Young, Allyn A., 1928. "Increasing Returns and Economic Progress," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 38, pages 527-542.
    20. F. A. Lutz, 1961. "The Theory of Capital," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-08452-4 edited by D. C. Hague.
    21. C. W. M. Naastepad, 2006. "Technology, demand and distribution: a cumulative growth model with an application to the Dutch productivity growth slowdown," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 30(3), pages 403-434, May.
    22. Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy—A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
    23. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2008. "Classical biased technical change approach and its relevance to reality," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 77-91.
    24. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    25. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    26. A. J. Julius, 2005. "Steady‐State Growth And Distribution With An Endogenous Direction Of Technical Change," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 101-125, February.
    27. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    28. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Cyclical growth in a Goodwin–Kalecki–Marx model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 108(2), pages 145-171, March.
    29. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    30. Jesus Felipe & Franklin M. Fisher, 2003. "Aggregation in Production Functions: What Applied Economists should Know," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2‐3), pages 208-262, May.
    31. Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. "On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
    32. repec:bla:econom:v:69:y:2002:i:273:p:155-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    34. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    35. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    37. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    38. Thomas Michl, 1999. "Biased Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 193-206.
    39. Skott, Peter, 1989. "Effective Demand, Class Struggle and Cyclical Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(1), pages 231-247, February.
    40. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 2011. "A New Approach to Estimating Production Function Parameters: The Elusive Capital–Labor Substitution Elasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 587-594.
    41. Foley, Duncan K., 2003. "Endogenous technical change with externalities in a classical growth model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 167-189, October.
    42. Nicholas Kaldor, 1961. "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth," International Economic Association Series, in: D. C. Hague (ed.), The Theory of Capital, chapter 0, pages 177-222, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sangjun Jeong, 2017. "Biased Technical Change and Economic Growth: The Case of Korea, 1970–2013," Research in Political Economy, in: Return of Marxian Macro-Dynamics in East Asia, volume 32, pages 81-103, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joao Paulo A. de Souza, 2017. "Real wages and labor-saving technical change: evidence from a panel of manufacturing industries in mature and labor-surplus economies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 151-172, March.
    2. Roberto Veneziani & Luca Zamparelli & Daniele Tavani & Luca Zamparelli, 2017. "Endogenous Technical Change In Alternative Theories Of Growth And Distribution," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1272-1303, December.
    3. Gharehgozli, Orkideh, 2021. "An empirical comparison between a regression framework and the Synthetic Control Method," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 70-81.
    4. Manuel David Cruz, 2022. "Labor productivity, real wages, and employment: evidence from a panel of OECD economies over 1960-2019," Working Papers PKWP2203, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    5. Scott, K. Rebecca, "undated". "Demand and price volatility: rational habits in international gasoline demand," CUDARE Working Papers 122891, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    6. Mansour Ardeshiri & Reza Moghaddasi & Saeed Yazdani & Amir Mohamadinejad, 2019. "Trade Openness and Spatial Distribution of Manufacturing Industries: Iranian Provincial Evidence," Asian Journal of Applied Economics/ Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 26(1), pages 21-44.
    7. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Working Paper Series 1010, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    9. Dincer, Oguzhan, 2019. "Does corruption slow down innovation? Evidence from a cointegrated panel of U.S. states," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-10.
    10. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & María A. Prats, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in the European Countries: A Panel ARDL Approach and a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-14, October.
    11. Roberto DELL'ANNO & Stefania VILLA, 2012. "Growth in Transition Countries: Big Bang versus Gradualism," CELPE Discussion Papers 122, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    12. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2018. "Alternative Approaches to Technological Change when Growth is BoPC," Department of Economics University of Siena 795, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    13. zamparelli, luca, 2008. "Direction and intensity of technical change: a micro-founded growth model," MPRA Paper 10843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sloboda, Brian W. & Sissoko, Yaya, . "Determinants of Economic Growth in ECOWAS Countries: An Empirical Investigation," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2).
    15. Sung, Bongsuk & Song, Woo-Yong & Park, Sang-Do, 2018. "How foreign direct investment affects CO2 emission levels in the Chinese manufacturing industry: Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 320-331.
    16. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Njangang, Henri & Asongu, Simplice A. & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Nounamo, Yann & Kamguia, Brice, 2022. "Governance in mitigating the effect of oil wealth on wealth inequality: A cross-country analysis of policy thresholds," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    19. Somesh K. Mathur & Rahul Arora & Ishita Ghoshal & Sarbjit Singh, 2016. "Domestic Energy Consumption and Country’s Income Growth: A Quantitative Analysis of Developing and Developed Countries Using Panel Causality, Panel VECM, Panel Cointegration and SURE," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 14(1), pages 87-116, June.
    20. Jaunky, Vishal Chandr, 2012. "Is there a material Kuznets curve for aluminium? evidence from rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 296-307.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2014-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniele Girardi The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Daniele Girardi to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deumaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.