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La TVA sociale: bonne ou mauvaise idée?

  • Fève, Patrick
  • Matheron, Julien
  • Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume

L’impact quantitatif et dynamique de la TVA sociale, i.e. une réforme fiscale consistant à substituer de la TVA aux charges patronales, est évaluée à l’aide de deux modèles d’équilibre général dynamique. Le premier est un modèle walrasien sans autres distorsions que des taxes sur les revenus du travail et du capital et sur la consommation. Le second introduit en plus des frictions d’appariement sur le marché du travail. Deux scenarii de mise en oeuvre de la TVA sociale sont envisagés. Dans tous les cas, la réforme fiscale se traduit par un effet de long terme de faible ampleur sur le niveau des variables agrégées et une amélioration modeste du bien–être. Dans le modèle sans frictions, ces gains sont substantiellement réduits lorsque la réforme est pré–annoncée six trimestres avant sa mise en oeuvre effective. L’effet d’une préannonce est moindre dans le modèle avec frictions sur le marché du travail.

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Paper provided by Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) in its series TSE Working Papers with number 09-038.

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Date of creation: 20 May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:22146
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