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Variantes en univers incertain

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  • Nicolas Maggiar
  • Antoine Devulder
  • Christophe Cahn
  • Stéphane Adjemian

Abstract

[eng] The authors illustrate the usefulness of the Bayesian approach in economic-policy assessment, which typically relies on simulations. We describe a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DGSE) model for the euro zone. The Bayesian estimation of the model measures parameter-related uncertainty, which translates into simulation-related uncertainty. We offer a practical application by simulating the impact of a tax policy : an announced VAT shock. [fre] Nous proposons d’illustrer l’intérêt de l’approche bayésienne dans le cadre de l’évaluation des politiques économiques, réalisée le plus souvent à l’aide de variantes. Nous présentons un modèle d’équilibre général stochastique dynamique (DSGE ) pour la zone euro. L’estimation bayésienne de ce modèle mesure l’incertitude sur les paramètres, qui se traduit en une incertitude sur les variantes. Nous donnons une application pratique en simulant les effets d’une politique fiscale (choc de TVA annoncé).

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Maggiar & Antoine Devulder & Christophe Cahn & Stéphane Adjemian, 2008. "Variantes en univers incertain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 183(2), pages 223-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2008_num_183_2_7815
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2008.7815
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2008.7815
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    3. Tarik Ocaktan & Michel Juillard, 2008. "Méthodes de simulation des modèles stochastiques d'équilibre général," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 183(2), pages 115-126.
    4. Stéphane Adjemian & Florian Pelgrin, 2008. "Un regard bayésien sur les modèles dynamiques de la macroéconomie," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 127-152.
    5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    6. Roland Straub & Günter Coenen, 2005. "Non-Ricardian Households and Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 102, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Carton, 2012. "Tax Reform and Coordination in a Currency Union," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 141-158.
    2. de Bandt, O. & Vigna, O., 2008. "The macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 11, pages 5-32, Spring.
    3. Tsasa Vangu, Jean-Paul Kimbambu, 2014. "Diagnostic de la politique monétaire en Rép. Dém. Congo – Approche par l’Equilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique," Dynare Working Papers 38, CEPREMAP.
    4. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "La TVA sociale : bonne ou mauvaise idée ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 1-19.
    5. Ignatova Anna M., 2016. "The Use Of The Project Method In Public Administration In Modern Russia," Annals of marketing-mba, Department of Marketing, Marketing MBA (RSconsult), vol. 1, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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