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Variantes en Univers Incertain

Author

Listed:
  • Adjemian, S.
  • Cahn, C.
  • Devulder, A.
  • Maggiar, N.

Abstract

In this paper, we try to illustrate the interest of the Bayesian approach for the evaluation of economic policies, often realised by analysing the response of the economy to a standard shock. We present a Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium model for the euro area. The Bayesian estimation gives a measure of the uncertainty on the parameters, from which we can derive the uncertainty of the responses to standard shocks. As an illustration, we simulate the effects of a fiscal shock (announced VAT increase).

Suggested Citation

  • Adjemian, S. & Cahn, C. & Devulder, A. & Maggiar, N., 2009. "Variantes en Univers Incertain," Working papers 236, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:236
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michel Juillard & Tarik Ocaktan, 2008. "Méthodes de simulation des modèles stochastiques d'équilibre général," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 115-126.
    2. Stéphane Adjemian & Florian Pelgrin, 2008. "Un regard bayésien sur les modèles dynamiques de la macroéconomie," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 127-152.
    3. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    4. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    5. Roland Straub & Günter Coenen, 2005. "Non-Ricardian Households and Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 102, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    7. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    8. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. de Bandt, O. & Vigna, O., 2008. "The macroeconomic impact of structural reforms," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 11, pages 5-32, Spring.
    2. Benjamin Carton, 2012. "Tax Reform and Coordination in a Currency Union," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 141-158.
    3. M. Barlet & M.-É. Clerc & M. Garnero & V. Lapègue & V. Marcus, 2011. "The New Version of the Model MZE, Macroeconometric Model for the Eurozone," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2011-15, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    4. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "La TVA sociale : bonne ou mauvaise idée ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 1-19.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; Euro zone; Nominal rigidities; Bayesian estimation.;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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