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Réformes fiscales dans un modèle DSGE France en économie ouverte

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  • Jean-Paul Renne
  • Maylis Coupet

Abstract

[eng] This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the French economy in the euro zone. The model is partly estimated with Bayesian techniques for nominal and real rigidity parameters. It seeks to assess the impact of tax reforms on the French economy, allowing for the economy’s interactions with the rest of the world. As an illustration, we analyze the macroeconomic impact of a “ social VAT ” measure consisting of a decrease in social contributions equal to 1% of market-sector GDP, wholly funded by a rise in VAT rates. Simulations suggest that such a measure would be expansionary in the short run : hours worked would rise 0.5 points within a year, GDP would gain 0.4 points, and the trade balance would improve by 0.2 points of GDP. In the long run, however, the positive employment effect would fade and the measure would result in a slight fall in activity, with market-sector GDP losing about 0.1 points with respect to the baseline scenario. [fre] Cet article présente un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique et stochastique représentant l’économie française au sein de la zone euro estimé en partie à l’aide de méthodes bayésiennes (pour les paramètres de rigidités nominales et réelle, notamment), il a pour objet d’évaluer l’impact de réformes fiscales sur l’économie française en tenant compte de ses interactions avec le reste du monde. En guise d’illustration, nous étudions l’impact macroéconomique d’une réforme de TVA sociale (diminution de cotisations sociales d’un montant équivalent à 1 % du PIB marchand , financée en totalité par une hausse de la TVA). Les simulations suggèrent qu'une telle mesure serait expansionniste à court terme, avec une augmentation des heures travaillées d’environ 0,5 % au bout d’un an, une progression du PIB marchand de 0,4 % et une amélioration de la balance commerciale de 0,2 point de PIB. En revanche, à long terme, les effets positifs sur l’emploi disparaîtraient et on observerait une légère diminution de l’activité (le PIB marchand perdant 0,1 % par rapport à sa valeur de compte central).

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul Renne & Maylis Coupet, 2008. "Réformes fiscales dans un modèle DSGE France en économie ouverte," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 183(2), pages 199-222.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2008_num_183_2_7814
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2008.7814
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2008.7814
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsasa Vangu, Jean-Paul Kimbambu, 2014. "Diagnostic de la politique monétaire en Rép. Dém. Congo – Approche par l’Equilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique," Dynare Working Papers 38, CEPREMAP.
    2. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "La TVA sociale : bonne ou mauvaise idée ?," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 1-19.
    3. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2012. "Une comparaison des modèles macro-économétriques et DSGE dans l'évaluation des politiques économiques : une comparaison basée sur les modèles Mésange et Egée," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 451(1), pages 45-68.
    4. Fève, P. & Matheron, J. & Sahuc,J-G., 2013. "Strict Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: The Case of Social VAT," Working papers 439, Banque de France.

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