IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiutis/03ba3f36-1d65-493d-b7b7-02d9a72ac3ca.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade reform, policy uncertainty and the current account : A non-expected utility approach

Author

Listed:
  • van Wijnbergen, S.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

Rapid trade liberalization is often followed by a decline in private savings, although permanent changes in trade policy do not affect intertemporal prices and should thus leave private savings unaffected. But a positive probability of future policy reversal lowers the consumption rate of interest and thus will increase current consumption. Furthermore, to separate the impact of shifts in intertemporal relative prices and of risk aversion, we use the Ordinal Certainty Equivalence approach. We establish that trade policy uncertainty per se will further reduce savings if: (a) there is positive risk aversion; (b) the intertemporal substitution elasticity exceeds one.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • van Wijnbergen, S., 1991. "Trade reform, policy uncertainty and the current account : A non-expected utility approach," Other publications TiSEM 03ba3f36-1d65-493d-b7b7-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:03ba3f36-1d65-493d-b7b7-02d9a72ac3ca
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/1148495/SW5620711.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Generalized least squares estimation of linear models containing rational future expectations," Other publications TiSEM 84eea9d9-bc3c-4d75-97d5-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1991. "Credibility and Stabilization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 837-850.
    3. Diamond, Peter A. & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1974. "Increases in risk and in risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 337-360, July.
    4. Verbeek, Marno & Nijman, Theo, 1992. "Can Cohort Data Be Treated as Genuine Panel Data?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 9-23.
    5. Steel, Mark F. J. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1991. "Bayesian multivariate exogeneity analysis : An application to a UK money demand equation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 239-274.
    6. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    7. Kapteyn, Arie & de Zeeuw, Aart, 1991. "Changing incentives for economic research in the Netherlands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 603-611, April.
    8. Razin, Assaf & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1983. "Trade taxes and the current account," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 55-57.
    9. ten Raa, Thijs & van der Ploeg, Rick, 1989. "A statistical approach to the problem of negatives in input-output analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 2-19, January.
    10. Rankin, Neil, 1992. "Imperfect Competition, Expectations and the Multiple Effects of Monetary Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 743-753, July.
    11. van der Ploeg, F. & Markink, A.J., 1991. "Dynamic policy in linear models with rational expectations of future events : A computer package," Other publications TiSEM 3acd93c9-b28d-4acb-a750-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. van Groenendaal, Willem & de Zeeuw, Aart, 1991. "Control, coordination and conflict on international commodity markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 90-101, January.
    13. Kapteyn, Arie & Kooreman, Peter, 1992. "Household labor supply: What kind of data can tell us how many decision makers there are?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 365-371, April.
    14. Talman, A.J.J., 1990. "General equilibrium programming," Other publications TiSEM b2dccd7c-f4e9-4e3c-9f67-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Nijman, Theo & Palm, Franz, 1991. "Generalized Least Squares Estimation of Linear Models Containing Rational Future Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 383-389, May.
    16. Rodrik, Dani, 1990. "Trade Policies and Development: Some New Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1990. "Credibility and the Dynamics of Stabilization Policy: A Basic Framework," IMF Working Papers 1990/110, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Selden, Larry, 1978. "A New Representation of Preferences over "Certain A Uncertain" Consumption Pairs: The "Ordinal Certainty Equivalent" Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1045-1060, September.
    19. Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 141-148, February.
    20. Arrau, Patricio & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1991. "Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and private savings in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 682, The World Bank.
    21. Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Can cohort data be treated as genuine panel data?," Other publications TiSEM d4eada8f-b91c-4fe7-a58c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Basu, Parantap & Ghosh, Satyajit & Kallianiotis, Ioannis, 2001. "Interest rate risk, labor supply and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 223-231, April.
    2. Basu, Parantap & Ghosh, Satyajit, 2001. "Tax rate uncertainty, labor supply and saving in a nonexpected utility maximizing model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 49-68.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1994. "Trade Reforms of Uncertain Duration and Real Uncertainty: A First Approximation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 555-586, December.
    4. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1993. "Central bank independence in twelve industrial countries," Other publications TiSEM 0401b17a-e2c7-4179-ace9-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Muto, S., 1994. "On licensing policies in Bertrand competition," Other publications TiSEM ef5dd5db-f744-4695-b669-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Yago, Milton & Morgan, Wyn, 2008. "The impact of policy reversal on economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 88-106, March.
    8. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Basu, Parantap, 1995. "Tax rate uncertainty and the sensitivity of consumption to income in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 421-439.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kapteyn, Arie & Kooreman, Peter, 1992. "Household labor supply: What kind of data can tell us how many decision makers there are?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 365-371, April.
    2. Van Soest, Arthur & Kooreman, Peter, 1990. "Coherency of the indirect translog demand system with binding nonnegativity constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 391-400, June.
    3. Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1993. "Nonresponse in panel data : The impact on estimates of a life cycle consumption function," Other publications TiSEM 7e304903-485c-4f36-b13a-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Kapteyn, Arie & Kooreman, Peter & van Soest, Arthur, 1990. "Quantity Rationing and Concavity in a Flexible Household Labor Supply Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 55-62, February.
    5. Bomze, I.M. & van Damme, E.E.C., 1990. "A dynamical characterization of evolutionarily stable states," Discussion Paper 1990-45, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Zou, L., 1993. "Ownership structure and efficiency : An incentive mechanism approach," Other publications TiSEM a72a05c2-b3f2-47c7-a003-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Lemmen, J.J.G. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1992. "The degree of financial integration in the European Community," Other publications TiSEM 817a9f5a-e221-40ad-976f-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Borm, Peter & Keiding, H & McLean, R.P. & Oortwijn, S & Tijs, S, 1992. "The Compromise Value for NTU-Games," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 21(2), pages 175-189.
    9. Barten, A.P., 1992. "The estimation of mixed demand systems," Other publications TiSEM 182f4296-e95b-4dea-aa8b-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Greenberg, J., 1993. "On the sensitivity of von Neuman and Morgenstern abstract stable sets : The stable and the individual stable bargaining set," Other publications TiSEM f8331cc7-3adf-4583-8921-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Antonio Cutanda & José M. Labeaga & Juan A. Sanchis-Llopis, 2020. "Aggregation biases in empirical Euler consumption equations: evidence from Spanish data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 957-977, March.
    12. Kasraian, Dena & Maat, Kees & van Wee, Bert, 2018. "Urban developments and daily travel distances: Fixed, random and hybrid effects models using a Dutch pseudo-panel over three decades," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 228-236.
    13. Katsushi S. Imai & Takahiro Sato, 2014. "Recent Changes in Micro-Level Determinants of Fertility in India: Evidence from National Family Health Survey Data," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 65-85, March.
    14. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/8703 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sarah Bridges & Simona Mateut, 2009. "Attitudes towards immigration in Europe," Working Papers 2009008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2009.
    16. Conley, John P. & Maloney, William F., 1995. "Optimal sequencing of credible reforms with uncertain outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 151-166, October.
    17. Xavier d'Haultfoeuille & Stefan Hoderlein & Yuya Sasaki, 2013. "Nonlinear difference-in-differences in repeated cross sections with continuous treatments," CeMMAP working papers CWP40/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    18. Miles Kimball & Philippe Weil, 2009. "Precautionary Saving and Consumption Smoothing across Time and Possibilities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 245-284, March.
    19. Koksal, Aycan & Wohlgenant, Michael, 2013. "Pseudo Panel Data Estimation Technique and Rational Addiction Model: An Analysis of Tobacco, Alcohol and Coffee Demands," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150457, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/8703 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Blank, Steven C., 2005. "Hedging with off-farm income: implications for production and investment decisions across farm sizes," 2005 Annual Meeting, July 6-8, 2005, San Francisco, California 291741, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    22. D'Amato, Alessio & Giaccherini, Matilde & Zoli, Mariangela, 2019. "The Role of Information Sources and Providers in Shaping Green Behaviors. Evidence from Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:03ba3f36-1d65-493d-b7b7-02d9a72ac3ca. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/about/schools/economics-and-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.