IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/441.html

Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account : A Non-Expected Utility Approach

Author

Listed:
  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder

Abstract

Rapid trade liberalization is often followed by a decline in private savings, although permanent changes in trade policy do not affect intertemporal prices and should thus leave private savings unaffected. But a positive probability of future policy reversal lowers the consumption rate of interest and thus will increase current consumption. Furthermore, to separate the impact of shifts in intertemporal relative prices and of risk aversion, we use the Ordinal Certainty Equivalence approach. We establish that trade policy uncertainty per se will further reduce savings if: (a) there is positive risk aversion; (b) the intertemporal substitution elasticity exceeds one.

Suggested Citation

  • van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1990. "Trade Reform, Policy Uncertainty and the Current Account : A Non-Expected Utility Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 441, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=441
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Muto, S., 1994. "On licensing policies in Bertrand competition," Other publications TiSEM ef5dd5db-f744-4695-b669-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Basu, Parantap & Ghosh, Satyajit & Kallianiotis, Ioannis, 2001. "Interest rate risk, labor supply and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 223-231, April.
    4. Basu, Parantap & Ghosh, Satyajit, 2001. "Tax rate uncertainty, labor supply and saving in a nonexpected utility maximizing model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 49-68.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1994. "Trade Reforms of Uncertain Duration and Real Uncertainty: A First Approximation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 555-586, December.
    6. Yago, Milton & Morgan, Wyn, 2008. "The impact of policy reversal on economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 88-106, March.
    7. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Eijffinger, S.C.W., 1993. "Central bank independence in twelve industrial countries," Other publications TiSEM 0401b17a-e2c7-4179-ace9-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Basu, Parantap, 1995. "Tax rate uncertainty and the sensitivity of consumption to income in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 421-439.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.