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A Numerical Simulation of Educational Mismatch in the Italian Labor Market

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  • Roberto Roson
  • Emanuela Ghignoni

Abstract

This paper presents a dataset associating education levels with occupations and proposes a methodology to estimate how the joint distribution of these variables may change after an exogenous shock affecting the labour market. The analysis focuses on the implication that, in response to weaker labour demand, sufficiently educated workers may reallocate into lower-ranked occupations rather than become unemployed. The exercise is conducted with Italian data covering 37 occupations and 10 education levels. A counterfactual employment-by-education distribution is estimated by using a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the labour-market impact of a trade disruption crisis with Russia.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Roson & Emanuela Ghignoni, 2023. "A Numerical Simulation of Educational Mismatch in the Italian Labor Market," CIMEO Working Paper Series 177, Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO).
    • Handle: RePEc:ter:wpaper:00177
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • A20 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J82 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Labor Force Composition

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