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The Lack of Wage Growth and the Falling NAIRU

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  • David N.F. Bell
  • David G. Blanchflower

Abstract

In this note, we argue that a considerable part of the explanation for the benign wage growth in the advanced world is the rise in underemployment. In the years after 2008 the unemployment rate understates labour market slack. Underemployment is more important than unemployment in explaining the weakness of wage growth in the UK. The Phillips curve in the UK has now to be rewritten into wage underemployment space. Underemployment now enters wage equations while the unemployment rate does not. There is every reason to believe that the NAIRU has fallen sharply since the Great Recession. In our view the NAIRU in the UK may well be nearer to 3 per cent, and even below it, than around 5 per cent, which other commentators including the MPC and the OBR believe.

Suggested Citation

  • David N.F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2018. "The Lack of Wage Growth and the Falling NAIRU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 245(1), pages 40-55, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:245:y:2018:i:1:p:r40-r55
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Spiteri & Philip Brockdorff, 2023. "Household Wealth and Inheritance Transfers: Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 619-633, September.
    2. Ramskogler, Paul, 2021. "Labour market hierarchies and the macro-economy – Do labour market dualities affect wage growth in Europe?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 154-165.
    3. Guyonne Kalb & Jordy Meekes, 2019. "Wage Growth Distribution and Decline among Individuals: 2001-2017," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2019-03, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Jul 2019.
    4. David N. F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2021. "Underemployment in the United States and Europe," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 74(1), pages 56-94, January.
    5. Bracha, Anat & Burke, Mary A., 2018. "Wage inflation and informal work," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 159-163.
    6. Combes, Jean-Louis & Lesuisse, Pierre, 2022. "Inflation and unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 124-142.
    7. Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2018. "Reflections on wage-setting," GLO Discussion Paper Series 230, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Roberto Roson & Emanuela Ghignoni, 2023. "A Numerical Simulation of Educational Mismatch in the Italian Labor Market," Working Papers 2023: 15, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    9. Roberto Roson & Emanuela Ghignoni, 2023. "A Numerical Simulation of Educational Mismatch in the Italian Labor Market," Working Papers in Public Economics 241, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    10. Rose Cunningham & Vikram Rai & Kristina Hess, 2019. "Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies," Discussion Papers 2019-8, Bank of Canada.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2020. "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 393-428, December.
    12. Roberto Roson, 2022. "Underemployment in a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 2022:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    13. Joohun Han & Chanjin Chung, 2021. "Impact of Aging and Underemployment on Income Disparity between Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Households," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    14. Orlov, D. & Postnikov, E., 2022. "Phillips curve: Inflation and NAIRU in the Russian regions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 61-80.
    15. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
    16. Bell, David N.F. & Blanchflower, David G., 2019. "The well-being of the overemployed and the underemployed and the rise in depression in the UK," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 180-196.
    17. Kiss, Aron & Van Herck, Kristine, 2019. "Short-Term and Long-Term Determinants of Moderate Wage Growth in the EU," IZA Policy Papers 144, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; underemployment; wage inflation; hours;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J42 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Monopsony; Segmented Labor Markets
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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