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Artificial Intelligence, Growth and Employment: The Role of Policy

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  • Philippe Aghion

    (Harvard University)

  • Céline Antonin

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Simon Bunel

Abstract

In this survey paper, we argue that the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation on growth and employment depend to a large extent on institutions and policies. We develop a two‑fold analysis. In a first section, we survey the most recent literature to show that AI can spur growth by replacing labor by capital, both in the production of goods and services and in the production of ideas. Yet, we argue that AI may inhibit growth if combined with inappropriate competition policy. In a second section, we discuss the effect of robotization on employment in France over the 1994‑2014 period. Based on our empirical analysis on French data, we first show that robotization reduces aggregate employment at the employment zone level, and second that non‑educated workers are more negatively affected by robotization than educated workers. This finding suggests that inappropriate labor market and education policies reduce the positive impact that AI and automation could have on employment.

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  • Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel, 2019. "Artificial Intelligence, Growth and Employment: The Role of Policy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7n49nkmngd8, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7n49nkmngd8448a5ts5gt5ade0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daron Acemoglu & Claire Lelarge & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 383-388, May.
    2. Alessandro Sterlacchini, 2022. "AI Patenting and Employment: Evidence from the World's Top R&D Investors," Working Papers 462, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Alguacil Marí, María Teresa & Lo Turco, Alessia & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2020. "What is so special about robots and trade?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 410, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Traverso, Silvio, 2021. "Robots and risk of COVID-19 workplace contagion: Evidence from Italy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Zhu, Jun & Zhang, Jingting & Feng, Yiqing, 2022. "Hard budget constraints and artificial intelligence technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    6. Ryosuke Shimizu & Shohei Momoda, 2020. "Does Automation Technology increase Wage?," KIER Working Papers 1039, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Ryosuke Shimizu & Shohei Momoda, 2021. "Does Automation Technology increase Wage?," Discussion papers ron343, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    9. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 107909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Xianhong Xiang & Guoge Yang & Hui Sun, 2022. "The Impact of the Digital Economy on Low-Carbon, Inclusive Growth: Promoting or Restraining," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-27, June.
    11. Guoge Yang & Feng Deng & Yifei Wang & Xianhong Xiang, 2022. "Digital Paradox: Platform Economy and High-Quality Economic Development—New Evidence from Provincial Panel Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, February.
    12. Alguacil, Maite & Lo Turco, Alessia & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2022. "Robot adoption and export performance: Firm-level evidence from Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 110390, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; Growth; Automation; Robots; Employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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