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Intelligence artificielle, croissance et emploi : le rôle des politiques

Author

Listed:
  • Philippe Aghion

    (Harvard University)

  • Céline Antonin

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Simon Bunel

Abstract

Dans cet article, nous défendons l’idée que les effets de l’intelligence artificielle (IA) et de l’automatisation sur la croissance et l’emploi dépendent pour une large part des institutions et des politiques. Notre analyse s’articule en deux temps. Dans une première partie, nous démontrons que l’IA peut stimuler la croissance en remplaçant la main‑d’oeuvre par du capital, tant en matière de production de biens et services que de production d’idées. Toutefois, nous soutenons que l’IA peut inhiber la croissance si elle est associée à une politique concurrentielle inadaptée. Dans une seconde partie, nous discutons l’effet de la robotisation sur l’emploi en France au cours de la période 1994‑2014. D’après notre analyse empirique sur données françaises, nous démontrons premièrement que la robotisation réduit l’emploi global au niveau des zones d’emploi, et deuxièmement que les travailleurs ayant un faible niveau d’éducation sont davantage pénalisés par la robotisation que les travailleurs ayant un fort niveau d’éducation. Ce constat suggère que des politiques inadaptées en matière de marché du travail et d’éducation réduisent l’impact positif que l’IA et l’automatisation pourraient avoir sur l’emploi.

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  • Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel, 2019. "Intelligence artificielle, croissance et emploi : le rôle des politiques," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/32clie4jki8, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/32clie4jki8msomae05u1i6kan
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intelligence artificielle; Croissance; Automatisation; Robots; Emploi; Artificial intelligence; Growth; Automation; Robots; Employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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