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La valeur du yuan. Les paradoxes du taux de change d'équilibre

Listed author(s):
  • Antoine Bouveret
  • Sana Mestiri

    (Laboratoire Structure et Dynamiques Financières (SDF))

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

La sous-évaluation de la monnaie chinoise vis-à-vis du dollar est souvent dénoncée comme l’une des causes des déséquilibres mondiaux. Les autorités américaines soutiennent que la Chine manipule son taux de change tandis que la majorité des travaux empiriques estiment que le yuan est sous-évalué de 15 à 30 %. Cet article montre que les modèles de taux de change d’équilibre généralement utilisés ne sont pas pertinents pour une économie en développement telle que l’économie chinoise. La Chine souffre d’un sous-emploi massif ; un taux de change sous-évalué au regard des critères traditionnels lui permet d’impulser la croissance vigoureuse nécessaire pour résorber son chômage. Plus généralement, le taux de change optimal d’un pays émergent ne peut être défini que relativement à une stratégie de croissance : plus le pays désire une croissance vigoureuse, plus il est prêt à faire un effort d’épargne, plus il doit pratiquer un taux de change faible. La première partie de l’article décrit les points saillants de la croissance chinoise depuis 1994, où la Chine est passée en change fixe avec le dollar : croissance élevée mais sous-emploi massif, faible inflation, accumulation massive de réserves, forts taux d’épargne et d’investissement. La deuxième partie présente et critique les évaluations du taux de change d’équilibre du yuan selon différentes méthodes. La troisième développe une maquette où le taux de change d’un pays en développement est volontairement fixé à un bas niveau pour permettre une croissance vigoureuse, de sorte que sous-évalué du point de vue des critères usuels, il est optimal du point de vue de la stratégie de croissance ; enfin, la quatrième partie montre la difficulté du choix d’un régime de change pour la Chine.

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File URL: http://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/5282/resources/3-98.pdf
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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/5282.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2006, pp.77-127
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5282
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.sciencespo.fr/

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  9. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, January.
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  14. Hanen Gharbi, 2005. "La gestion des taux de change dans les pays émergents. La leçon des expériences récentes," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 95(4), pages 279-326.
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  17. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
  18. Antoine Bouveret & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Les modèles de taux de change. Équilibre de long terme, dynamique et hystérèse," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 93(2), pages 243-286.
  19. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2005. "China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity," Working Paper Series WP05-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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