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Debt, Deficits and Inflation on the Road to the EU: the case of Turkey

  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE)

  • Günes Kamber

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Turkey experienced a severe banking crisis in 2001 that resulted in huge social and fiscal costs since most defaulting banks had already been compulsorily transferred to a publicly-held fund (the deposit insurance fund). Basing ourselves on estimations by Burnside et al. [2003, NBER Working Paper], we further investigate the links between these fiscal costs and the subsequent debt deflation that occurred in Turkey after the crisis. Our analysis also draws extensively on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) and on the empirical methodology originally proposed by Canzoneri et al. [2001, American Economic Review]. Our main results are twofold. First, the fiscal costs attributable to the banking crisis can be given a FTPL interpretation and debt deflation appears as a deliberate policy. Second, the FTPL interpretation is not reliable over a time span excluding the most recent years, and the public management of the banking crisis can be considered as an "exceptional circumstance". The policy implications are then that without a substantial improvement in the management of banks, a dramatic economic episode like the 2001 crisis could again occur and the Turkish disinflation efforts could be wasted and lost for a long period. Hence, converging towards the EU standards in terms of deregulation seems a reasonable condition for avoiding long years of high deficits and inflation. JEL classifications: F31, E62, E63

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
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Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2004
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3003
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  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2003. "Government Finance in the Wake of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 9786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ayca Tekin-Koru & Erdal Ozmen, 2003. "Budget deficits, money growth and inflation: the Turkish evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 591-596.
  3. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  4. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "Long-term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 6771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
  6. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 2003. "Fatal attraction: Turkey's troubled relationship with the European Union," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 807-826.
  7. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
  8. Metin, Kivilcim, 1995. "An Integrated Analysis of Turkish Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 513-31, November.
  9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
  10. CELASUN Oya & GELOS Gaston & PRATI Alessandro, . "Would “Cold Turkey” Work in Turkey?," EcoMod2003 330700033, EcoMod.
  11. Jérôme Creel & Hervé Le Bihan, 2006. "Using Structural Balance Data to Test the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some International Evidence," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3263, Sciences Po.
  12. Laura Papi & G. C. Lim, 1997. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Inflation in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 97/170, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  14. Burnside, Craig, 2004. "Currency crises and contingent liabilities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 25-52, January.
  15. Isik, Ihsan & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2003. "Financial disruption and bank productivity: The 1994 experience of Turkish banks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 291-320.
  16. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-22, October.
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