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Modelling and evaluation of the diffusion of electric vehicles: existing models, results, and proposal for a new model


  • Jèrome Massiani

    (Università Cà Foscari,Venice,Italy)


In this paper we review the available methods, models and results about the diffusion of electric vehicles and the evaluation of related policy. We show that existing models often relate to contexts that are not relevant for the design of policies that could take place in Europe. We also find that many models rely on exogenous diffusion assumption and are not intended to simulate the effects of alternative policy packages, which can significantly limit their scope. Moreover we find that only a few of the studies presenting themselves as costs-benefit analysis really perform what they claim. We also draw some conclusions on the features of models that would be needed to derive recommendations relevant in the European policy framework

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  • Jèrome Massiani, 2011. "Modelling and evaluation of the diffusion of electric vehicles: existing models, results, and proposal for a new model," Working Papers 11_6, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica, revised 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:sit:wpaper:11_6

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fredrik Carlsson & Olof Johansson-Stenman, 2003. "Costs and Benefits of Electric Vehicles," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 37(1), pages 1-28, January.
    2. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "Comments on "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1833-1840, December.
    3. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    4. Kazimi, Camilla, 1997. "Evaluating the Environmental Impact of Alternative-Fuel Vehicles," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 163-185, June.
    5. Martin Achtnicht, 2012. "German car buyers’ willingness to pay to reduce CO 2 emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 679-697, August.
    6. Dagsvik, John K. & Wennemo, Tom & Wetterwald, Dag G. & Aaberge, Rolf, 2002. "Potential demand for alternative fuel vehicles," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 361-384, May.
    7. Kley, Fabian & Wietschel, Martin & Dallinger, David, 2010. "Evaluation of European electric vehicle support schemes," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S7/2010, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    8. Frank M. Bass, 2004. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1825-1832, December.
    9. Kazimi, Camilla, 1997. "Valuing Alternative-Fuel Vehicles in Southern California," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 265-271, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data. Part I: Model structure and validation," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S4/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).

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