Re-Examining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with White’s Reality Check
In this paper, we re-examine the profitability of technical analysis using the Reality Check of White (2000, Econometrica) that corrects the data snooping bias. Comparing to previous studies, we study a more complete “universe” of trading techniques, including not only simple trading rules but also investor’s strategies, and we test the profitability of these rules and strategies with four main indices from both relatively mature and young markets. It is found that profitable simple rules and investor’s strategies do exist with statistical significance for NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 but not for DJIA and S&P 500. Moreover, the best rules for NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 outperform the buy-and-hold strategy in most in- and out-of-sample periods, even when transaction costs are taken into account. We also find that investor’s strategies are able to improve on the profits of simple rules and may even generate significant profits from unprofitable simple rules.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 886-2-27822791|
Web page: http://www.econ.sinica.edu.tw/index.php?foreLang=en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 1998.
"International Momentum Strategies,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 267-284, 02.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 1998.
"Technical trading rules in the European Monetary System,"
1997-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 1999. "Technical trading rules in the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 429-458.
- Mark J Ready, 2002. "Profits from Technical Trading Rules," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(3), Fall.
- Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999.
"Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," CEPR Discussion Papers 1976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
- Josef Lakonishok & Robert W. Vishny & Andrei Shleifer, 1993.
"Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk,"
NBER Working Papers
4360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1993. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 84, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Gencay, Ramazan, 1998. "The predictability of security returns with simple technical trading rules," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 347-359, October.
- Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 2004.
"The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-considered,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm30, Yale School of Management.
- Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 1998. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Reconsidered," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1311-1333, 08.
- Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 1998. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm85, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
- Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & Alok Kumar, 1998. "The Dow Theory: William Peter Hamilton's Track Record Re-Considered," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-013, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Chan, Louis K. C. & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 1998. "The Risk and Return from Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 159-188, June.
- Knez, Peter J & Ready, Mark J, 1996. "Estimating the Profits from Trading Strategies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1121-1163.
- Jensen, Michael C & Bennington, George A, 1970. "Random Walks and Technical Theories: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 469-482, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sin:wpaper:04-a003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HsiaoyunLiu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.