Predictability of Equity Models
In this study, we verify the existence of predictability in the Brazilian equity market. Unlike other studies in the same sense, which evaluate original series for each stock, we evaluate synthetic series created on the basis of linear models of stocks. Following Burgess (1999), we use the “stepwise regression” model for the formation of models of each stock. We then use the variance ratio profile together with a Monte Carlo simulation for the selection of models with potential predictability. Unlike Burgess (1999), we carry out White’s Reality Check (2000) in order to verify the existence of positive returns for the period outside the sample. We use the strategies proposed by Sullivan, Timmermann & White (1999) and Hsu & Kuan (2005) amounting to 26,410 simulated strategies. Finally, using the bootstrap methodology, with 1,000 simulations, we find strong evidence of predictability in the models, including transaction costs
|Date of creation:||Jan 2009|
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- Baptista, Ricardo F. de F. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2008.
"Análise do Desempenho de Regras de Análise Técnica Aplicada ao Mercado Intradiário do Contrato Futuro do Índice Bovespa
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"“Ombro-Cabeça-Ombro”: Testando a Lucratividade do Padrão Gráfico de Análise Técnica no Mercado de Ações Brasileiro
[Head and Shoulder: testing the profitability of graphic pattern of technical anal," MPRA Paper 15653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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- Po-Hsuan Hsu & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2004. "Re-Examining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with White’s Reality Check," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 04-A003, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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