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Illusory Profitability of Technical Analysis in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets

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  • P Kuang
  • M Schroder
  • Q Wang

Abstract

We conduct an extensive examination of profitability of technical analysis in ten emerging foreign exchange markets. Studying 25988 trading strategies for emerging foreign exchange markets, we find that best rules can sometimes generate an annually mean excess return of more than 30%. Based on standard tests, we find hundreds to thousands of seemingly significant profitable strategies. Almost all these profits vanish once the data snooping bias is taken into account. Overall, we show that the profitability of technical analysis is illusory.

Suggested Citation

  • P Kuang & M Schroder & Q Wang, 2013. "Illusory Profitability of Technical Analysis in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets," Discussion Papers 13-09, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:13-09
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jin, Xiaoye, 2021. "What do we know about the popularity of technical analysis in foreign exchange markets? A skewness preference perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Potì, Valerio, 2018. "A new tight and general bound on return predictability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 140-145.
    4. Matheus José Silva de Souza & Danilo Guimarães Franco Ramos & Marina Garcia Pena & Vinicius Amorim Sobreiro & Herbert Kimura, 2018. "Examination of the profitability of technical analysis based on moving average strategies in BRICS," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Xiaoye Jin, 2022. "Evaluating the predictive power of intraday technical trading in China's crude oil market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1416-1432, November.
    6. Noureddine Kouaissah & Amin Hocine, 2021. "Forecasting systemic risk in portfolio selection: The role of technical trading rules," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 708-729, July.
    7. Psaradellis, Ioannis & Laws, Jason & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Sermpinis, Georgios, 2023. "Technical analysis, spread trading, and data snooping control," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 178-191.
    8. Dockery, Everton & Todorov, Ivan, 2023. "Further evidence on the returns to technical trading rules: Insights from fourteen currencies," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Levich, Richard & Conlon, Thomas & Potì, Valerio, 2019. "Measuring excess-predictability of asset returns and market efficiency over time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 92-96.
    10. Lee, Namhoon & Choi, Wonseok & Pae, Yuntaek, 2021. "Market efficiency in foreign exchange market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    11. Jin, Xiaoye, 2022. "Performance of intraday technical trading in China’s gold market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Frömmel, Michael & Lampaert, Kevin, 2016. "Does frequency matter for intraday technical trading?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 177-183.
    13. Flavio Ivo Riedlinger & João Nicolau, 2020. "The Profitability in the FTSE 100 Index: A New Markov Chain Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(1), pages 61-81, March.
    14. Dao, Thong M. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "A calendar effect: Weekend overreaction (and subsequent reversal) in spot FX rates," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 158-167.
    15. Tajaddini, Reza & Crack, Timothy Falcon, 2012. "Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-537.
    16. Ding, Wenjie & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Qingwei, 2021. "Volatility timing, sentiment, and the short-term profitability of VIX-based cross-sectional trading strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 42-56.
    17. Yang, Junmin & Cao, Zhiguang & Han, Qiheng & Wang, Qiyu, 2019. "Tactical asset allocation on technical trading rules and data snooping," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    18. Potì, Valerio & Levich, Richard & Conlon, Thomas, 2020. "Predictability and pricing efficiency in forward and spot, developed and emerging currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange; technical trading; data mining; bootstrap test; emerging market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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