Predictability of equity models
In this study, we verify the existence of predictability in the Brazilian equity market. Unlike other studies in the same sense, which evaluate original series for each stock, we evaluate synthetic series created on the basis of linear models of stocks. Following Burgess (1999), we use the “stepwise regression” model for the formation of models of each stock. We then use the variance ratio profile together with a Monte Carlo simulation for the selection of models with potential predictability. Unlike Burgess (1999), we carry out White’s Reality Check (2000) in order to verify the existence of positive returns for the period outside the sample. We use the strategies proposed by Sullivan, Timmermann & White (1999) and Hsu & Kuan (2005) amounting to 26,410 simulated strategies. Finally, using the bootstrap methodology, with 1,000 simulations, we find strong evidence of predictability in the models, including transaction costs.
|Date of creation:||27 Jan 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Rua Itapeva, 474, 13o andar, CEP 01332-000, São Paulo - SP|
Phone: 55 (011) 3799-3350
Fax: 55 (011) 3799-3357
Web page: http://eesp.fgv.br
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baptista, Ricardo F. de F. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2008.
"Análise do Desempenho de Regras de Análise Técnica Aplicada ao Mercado Intradiário do Contrato Futuro do Índice Bovespa
[Analysis of the performance of Technical Analysis startegies applied to Intr," MPRA Paper 10351, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Baptista, Ricardo Fuscaldi de Figueiredo & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2009. "Análise do desempenho de regras da análise técnica aplicada ao mercado intradiário do contrato futuro do índice Ibovespa," Textos para discussão 173, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Lo, Andrew W. & Mackinlay, A. Craig, 1997. "Maximizing Predictability In The Stock And Bond Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 102-134, January.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1992. "Maximizing predictability in the stock and bond markets," Working papers 3450-92., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1995. "Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 5027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
- Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," CEPR Discussion Papers 1976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 431-467.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan) & MacKinlay, Archie Craig, 1955-, 1989. "Data-snooping biases in tests of financial asset pricing models," Working papers 3020-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 3001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boainain, Pedro G. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2009. "“Ombro-Cabeça-Ombro”: Testando a Lucratividade do Padrão Gráfico de Análise Técnica no Mercado de Ações Brasileiro
[Head and Shoulder: testing the profitability of graphic pattern of technical anal," MPRA Paper 15653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2009. "Ombro-cabeça-ombro': testando a lucratividade do padrão gráfico de análise técnica no mercado de ações brasileiro," Textos para discussão 181, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
- Po-Hsuan Hsu & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2004. "Re-Examining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with White’s Reality Check," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 04-A003, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Núcleo de Computação da EPGE)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.