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Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility

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  • Kevin Kotze
  • Stan Du Plessis

Abstract

The international financial crisis that started in 2007 and the subsequent end of the long expansion in South Africa has refocused attention on the business cycle. Prior to the crisis, the economies of both developed and developing countries experienced an extended period of low and stable inflation and stable real economic growth, an episode that […]

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Kotze & Stan Du Plessis, 2012. "Trends and Structural Changes in South African Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 297, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Stan du Plessis & Willem Boshoff, 2007. "A fiscal rule to produce counter-cyclical fiscal policy in South Africa," Working Papers 13/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    12. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2017. "Forecasting South African macroeconomic variables with a Markov-switching small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 117-135, August.
    2. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy In South Africa Under Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive Model," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(4), pages 55-73, October-D.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; emerging market economies; stochastic volatility model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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