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The Impact of Financial Factors on the Output Gap and Estimates of Potential Output Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe, Jesus

    () (Asian Development Bank)

  • Sotocinal, Noli

    () (Asian Development Bank)

  • Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie

    () (Ateneo de Manila University)

Abstract

The literature on the finance–growth nexus highlights the importance of the financial cycle for the estimation of potential output of an economy. We estimate potential output growth for the G-5 countries, as well as for 10 high- and middle-income Asian economies, using a multivariate model that includes financial factors. We find that the latter have a positive and statistically significant effect on the output gap of the G-5 and high-income Asian economies, but not on that of the middle-income Asian economies. We also find that average potential growth of the economies included in the study is lower in 2008–2014 than in 2000–2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe, Jesus & Sotocinal, Noli & Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie, 2015. "The Impact of Financial Factors on the Output Gap and Estimates of Potential Output Growth," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 457, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0457
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    File URL: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/175015/ewp-457.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlin, Wendy & Mayer, Colin, 2003. "Finance, investment, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 191-226, July.
    2. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    3. Eggoh C. Jude, 2010. "Financial Development And Growth: A Panel Smooth Regression Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-33, March.
    4. Rioja, Felix & Valev, Neven, 2004. "Does one size fit all?: a reexamination of the finance and growth relationship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 429-447, August.
    5. Rousseau, Peter L. & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Inflation thresholds and the finance-growth nexus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 777-793, November.
    6. Law, Siong Hook & Singh, Nirvikar, 2014. "Does too much finance harm economic growth?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Deba Prasad Rath & Pratik Mitra & Joice John, 2017. "A Measure of Finance-Neutral Output Gap for India," Working Papers id:11986, eSocialSciences.
    2. Matteo Lanzafame, 2016. "Potential Growth in Asia and Its Determinants: An Empirical Investigation," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(2), pages 1-27, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; financial factors; output gaps; potential output growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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