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Modelling the Fiscal Reaction Functions of the GIPS based on State-Varying Thresholds

Author

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  • Gabriella Legrenzi

    (Keele University, UK; CESifo, Germany; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

  • Costas Milas

    (Liverpool University, UK; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

Abstract

We extend previous literature on fiscal policy sustainability by introducing non-linear fiscal reaction functions with endogenously estimated state-varying thresholds to capture the behaviour of fiscal policy authorities during "good" and "bad" times. These thresholds vary with the level of debt, the economic cycle and an index of financial pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2013. "Modelling the Fiscal Reaction Functions of the GIPS based on State-Varying Thresholds," Working Paper series 16_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:16_13
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    Cited by:

    1. Tamborini, Roberto & Tomaselli, Matteo, 2020. "The determinants of austerity in the European Union 2010–16," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in EMU countries: A continued fiscal commitment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 85-97.
    3. Costas Milas, 2014. "Financial Stress and the Impact of Public Debt on UK Growth in High versus Low-Growth Regimes: 1850-2013," Working Paper series 13_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2022. "Euro Area Periphery Countries' Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 544-568, June.
    6. Pegkas Panagiotis, 2019. "Government Debt and Economic Growth. A Threshold Analysis for Greece," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-6, February.
    7. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    8. Vdovychenko, Artem & Oros, Galyna, 2014. "Financial stress index: estimation and application in empirical researches in Ukraine," MPRA Paper 69337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Alessandro Piergallini, 2019. "Nonlinear policy behavior, multiple equilibria and debt-deflation attractors," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 563-580, April.
    10. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Yoshida, Motonori, 2023. "Chronological changes of government sectors’ fiscal policies and fiscal sustainability in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    13. António Afonso & José Alves & José Carlos Coelho, 2023. "Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability," Working Papers REM 2023/0255, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Stochastic debt sustainability analysis using time-varying fiscal reaction functions. An agnostic approach to fiscal forecasting," CQE Working Papers 10422, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    15. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Longin, François, 2018. "Financial market activity under capital controls: Lessons from extreme events," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 10-13.
    16. Vdovychenko Artem, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Rection and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 16/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    17. Iancu, Aurel & Olteanu, Dan Constantin, 2023. "Debt Limit, Fiscal Space and Fiscal Fatigue in the Central and Eastern European Countries of EU," Working Papers of National Institute for Economic Research 230629, Institutul National de Cercetari Economice (INCE).
    18. Amélie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Nicolas MAZUY, 2018. "Country-specific fiscal reaction functions: what lessons for EMU ?," Working Papers of BETA 2018-28, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    19. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    20. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Palazzo, Alessandra Anna & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2019. "Fiscal activism in the euro area and in other advanced economies: new evidence," Working Paper Series 2344, European Central Bank.
    21. Canofari, Paolo & Marini, Giancarlo & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2020. "Financial Crisis and Sustainability of US Fiscal Deficit: Indicators or Tests?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 192-204.
    22. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Safdar Ullah Khan & Habib-Ur Rahman, 2021. "Analysis of Australia’s Fiscal Vulnerability to Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt sustainability; fiscal reaction function; state-varying threshold;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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