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Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy

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  • Piergallini, Alessandro
  • Postigliola, Michele

Abstract

We examine the historical dynamics of government debt in Post-Unification Italy, from 1861 to 2009. Unit root tests for the debt-GDP ratio are unable to reject either the non stationarity or the stationarity null hypothesis. Controlling debt dynamics for fiscal feedback policies of the Barro-Bohn style, however, the debt-GDP ratio is found to be mean-reverting. Mean-reversion in the debt-GDP ratio is due not only to a nominal growth dividend, but also to a positive response of primary surpluses to variations in outstanding debt. There is indeed significant evidence that, over the history of Italy, fiscal policy makers have reacted to the accumulation of debt, taking corrective measures to rule out potential long-term sustainability problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Piergallini, Alessandro & Postigliola, Michele, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy," MPRA Paper 28200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28200
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Public Debt; Fiscal Sustainability.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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