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Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy, 1861-2009

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Abstract

We examine the historical dynamics of government debt in post-unification Italy, from 1861 to 2009. Unit root tests for the debt-GDP ratio are unable to reject either the non-stationarity or the stationarity null hypothesis. Controlling debt dynamics for fiscal feedback policies of the Barro-Bohn style, however, the debt-GDP ratio is found to be mean-reverting. Mean-reversion in the debt-GDP ratio is due not only to a nominal growth dividend, but also to a positive response of primary surpluses to variations in outstanding debt. There is indeed significant evidence that, over the history of Italy, fiscal policy makers have reacted to the accumulation of debt, taking corrective measures to rule out potential long-term sustainability problems.

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  • Alessandro Piergallini & Michele Postigliola, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy, 1861-2009," CEIS Research Paper 248, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 27 Jul 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:248
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    Cited by:

    1. Magazzino, Cosimo & Brady, Gordon L. & Forte, Francesco, 2019. "A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    2. Piergallini, Alessandro & Postigliola, Michele, 2020. "Evaluating the sustainability of Italian public finances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Government Expenditures and Revenues in Italy in a Long-run Perspective," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 361-375, June.
    4. Piergallini, Alessandro & Postigliola, Michele, 2013. "Non-linear budgetary policies: Evidence from 150 years of Italian public finance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 495-498.
    5. Kugbee S. James & Insah Baba, 2015. "Fiscal Sustainability in the Ghanaian Economy: A Fiscal Reaction Function Approach," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(1), pages 16-20.
    6. Vladimir Arcabic & Frane Banic, 2021. "Characteristics of fiscal policy in Croatia: does it depend on the phase of the business cycle?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 433-457.
    7. Comín, Francisco & Cuevas, Joaquim, 2017. "The Deadly Embrace Between The Banks And The State In Spain, 1850-2015," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 387-414, December.
    8. Guido Baldi & Karsten Staehr, 2013. "The European Debt Crisis and Fiscal Reaction Functions in Europe 2000-2012," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1295, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Katia Berti & Eugeniu Colesnic & Cyril Desponts & Stephanie Pamies & Etienne Sail, 2016. "Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 028, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Emilio Congregado & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2023. "Deficit sustainability and fiscal theory of price level: the case of Italy, 1861–2020," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 755-782, August.
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    13. Rudi Kurniawan, 2015. "Does Indonesia Pursue Sustainable Fiscal Policy?," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201504, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2015.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Public Debt; Fiscal Sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General

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