Financial Stress and the Impact of Public Debt on UK Growth in High versus Low-Growth Regimes: 1850-2013
Using a long historical dataset, we estimate a Threshold Vector Autoregression (T-VAR) model for the UK based on a financial stress measure, the debt-to-GDP ratio, borrowing costs and real GDP growth. Our model allows for the impact of debt/GDP to vary between periods of high and low economic growth. We find that financial stress depresses growth much more in the low as opposed to the high-growth regime. We also find that positive shocks to debt/GDP depress economic growth and raise borrowing costs; again, the impact is much stronger when growth is low. This is an important finding as economists and policy-makers are currently debating whether it makes sense to proceed swiftly with fiscal consolidation when economic conditions remain weak.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rcfea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
- Jaromir Baxa & Roman Horvath & Borek Vasicek, 2011.
"Time-Varying Monetary-Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary Policy?,"
2011/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
- Roman Horvath & Jaromir Baxa & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "How Does Monetary Policy Respond to Financial Stress?," EcoMod2011 2769, EcoMod.
- Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary," Working Papers wpdea1101, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
- Bruneau, C. & de Bandt, O. & El Amri, W., 2012.
"Macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate financial fragility,"
Journal of Financial Stability,
Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 219-235.
- Catherine Bruneau & Olivier De Bandt & W. Elamri, 2012. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Corporate financial Fragility," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00666757, HAL.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band pass filter,"
9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
- Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2013. "Measuring financial stress in transition economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 597-611.
- Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2013.
"Debt and growth: New evidence for the euro area,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 809-821.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2009.
"The Second Great Contraction,"
21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"Varieties of Crises and Their Dates
[This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly]," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
- Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014.
"Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
- Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013. "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff," Working Papers wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998.
"Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models,"
Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Lof, Matthijs & Malinen, Tuomas, 2014.
"Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis,"
Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 403-407.
- Lof, Matthijs & Malinen, Tuomas, 2013. "Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A Panel VAR analysis," MPRA Paper 52039, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stephan Danninger & Irina Tytell & Ravi Balakrishnan & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:13_14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dimitrios Vortelinos)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.