The Inflation Output Trade-Off Revisited
A rich literature from the 1970s shows that as inflation expectations become more and more ingrained, monetary policy looses its stimulative effect. In the extreme, with perfectly anticipated inflation, there is no trade-off between inflation and output. A recent literature on the zero bound, however, suggests that there may be some benefits from anticipated inflation. In this paper, we reconcile these two insights by showing that while at positive interest rates, it is true that the more anticipated inflation becomes, the less stimulative it is, the opposite holds true at the zero bound. Indeed, at the zero bound, the more the public anticipates inflation, the greater is the effect of inflation on output. This leads us to revisit the trade-off between inflation and output, and to show how radically they may change in the face of large demand shocks. The case for inflation becomes much stronger: Instead of turning to zero once inflation becomes anticipated, the trade-off between inflation and output increase substantially and may become arbitrarily large.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA|
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009.
"When is the government spending multiplier large?,"
NBER Working Papers
15394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001.
"The Perils of Taylor Rules,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
- Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The perils of Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 2314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1998. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Working Papers 98-37, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 2005.
"The Incredible Volcker Disinflation,"
NBER Working Papers
11562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2005. "The Incredible Volcker Disinflation," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2005-007, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
- Saroj Bhattara & Gauti Eggertsson & Raphael Schoenle, 2012.
"Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux,"
41, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
- Raphael Schoenle & Gauti Eggertsson & Saroj Bhattarai, 2012. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux," 2012 Meeting Papers 487, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Saroj Bhattarai & Gauti Eggertsson & Raphael Schoenle, 2014. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Redux," NBER Working Papers 19886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Saroj Bhattarai & Gauti B. Eggertsson & Raphael Schoenle, 2012. "Is increased price flexibility stabilizing? Redux," Staff Reports 540, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Barry J. Eichengreen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984.
"Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s,"
NBER Working Papers
1498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.