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The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Martha J. Bailey

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Janet Currie

    (Princeton University)

  • Hannes Schwandt

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

We use restricted natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 to August 2022 to examine the childbearing response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although fertility rates declined in 2020, these declines appear to reflect reductions in travel to the U.S. Childbearing in the U.S. among foreign-born mothers declined immediately after lockdowns began—nine months too soon to reflect the pandemic's effects on conceptions. We also find that the COVID pandemic resulted in a small "baby bump" among U.S.-born mothers. The 2021 baby bump is the first major reversal in declining U.S. fertility rates since 2007 and was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, which suggests the pandemic led some women to start their families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was also pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education, who were more likely to benefit from working from home. The data for California track the U.S. data closely and suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through the third quarter of 2022.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha J. Bailey & Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2022. "The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic," Working Papers 2022-30, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:econom:2022-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kasey S. Buckles & Daniel M. Hungerman, 2013. "Season of Birth and Later Outcomes: Old Questions, New Answers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 711-724, July.
    2. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    3. Martha J. Bailey & Lea Bart & Vanessa Wanner Lang, 2022. "The Missing Baby Bust: The Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Contraceptive Use, Pregnancy, and Childbirth Among Low-Income Women," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1549-1569, August.
    4. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Fallesen & Marco Cozzani, 2023. "Partial fertility recuperation in Spain two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 49(17), pages 465-478.
    2. Martha Bailey & Tanya Byker & Elena Patel & Shanthi Ramnath, 2025. "The Long-Run Effects of California's Paid Family Leave Act on Women's Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 401-431, February.
    3. Dench, Daniel & Pineda-Torres, Mayra & Myers, Caitlin Knowles, 2023. "The Effects of the Dobbs Decision on Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 16608, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Dench, Daniel & Pineda-Torres, Mayra & Myers, Caitlin, 2024. "The effects of post-Dobbs abortion bans on fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    5. Jenna Nobles & Alison Gemmill & Sungsik Hwang & Florencia Torche, 2024. "Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(S1), pages 101-128, July.
    6. Daniel Dench & Wenhui Li & Theodore Joyce & Howard Minkoff & Gretchen Wye, 2024. "Fertility in the Heart of the COVID-19 Storm," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Krista Ruffini, 2023. "Does Unconditional Cash during Pregnancy Affect Infant Health?," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 072, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

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    JEL classification:

    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

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