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The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic

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  • Martha J. Bailey
  • Janet Currie
  • Hannes Schwandt

Abstract

We use natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in U.S. fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all U.S. births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to U.S.-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a pre-pandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education. The 2021-2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.

Suggested Citation

  • Martha J. Bailey & Janet Currie & Hannes Schwandt, 2022. "The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 30569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30569
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    1. Martha J. Bailey & Lea Bart & Vanessa Wanner Lang, 2022. "The Missing Baby Bust: The Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Contraceptive Use, Pregnancy, and Childbirth Among Low-Income Women," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1549-1569, August.
    2. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    3. Kasey S. Buckles & Daniel M. Hungerman, 2013. "Season of Birth and Later Outcomes: Old Questions, New Answers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 711-724, July.
    4. Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
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    1. Martha Bailey & Tanya Byker & Elena Patel & Shanthi Ramnath, 2025. "The Long-Run Effects of California's Paid Family Leave Act on Women's Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and US Tax Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 401-431, February.
    2. Dench, Daniel & Pineda-Torres, Mayra & Myers, Caitlin Knowles, 2023. "The Effects of the Dobbs Decision on Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 16608, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Dench, Daniel & Pineda-Torres, Mayra & Myers, Caitlin, 2024. "The effects of post-Dobbs abortion bans on fertility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    4. Jenna Nobles & Alison Gemmill & Sungsik Hwang & Florencia Torche, 2024. "Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 50(S1), pages 101-128, July.
    5. Daniel Dench & Wenhui Li & Theodore Joyce & Howard Minkoff & Gretchen Wye, 2024. "Fertility in the Heart of the COVID-19 Storm," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(4), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Peter Fallesen & Marco Cozzani, 2023. "Partial fertility recuperation in Spain two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 49(17), pages 465-478.
    7. Krista Ruffini, 2023. "Does Unconditional Cash during Pregnancy Affect Infant Health?," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 072, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

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    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General

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