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Budget deficit-money demand nexus in Nigeria: A myth or reality?


  • Ibrahim, Taofik


Budget deficit has an implication for monetary policy formulation and thus aggregate macroeconomic performance. An important question often asked is whether an increase in budget deficit is able to change the money market equilibrium. In order to answer this question, this paper investigates empirically the sensitivity and validity of the Keynesian and Neoclassical propositions and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. The study utilized cointegration analysis and ECM methodology to ascertain the short and long-run effect of budget deficit on money demand. The results of the cointegration test confirmed the existence of a strong and stable long-term relationship among the variables in the money demand model. Also, the estimates of the ECM model indicate the existence of a short- and long-term, positive and significant relationship between money demand and budget deficit suggesting that the Keynesian and Neoclassical views hold for Nigeria. Therefore the study suggests that there should be increased emphasis on productivity and efficiency of government expenditure since it impacts positively on aggregate money demand via increase in aggregate demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim, Taofik, 2017. "Budget deficit-money demand nexus in Nigeria: A myth or reality?," MPRA Paper 86265, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Nov 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86265

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pami Dua, 1993. "Interest Rates, Government Purchases, and Budget Deficits: a Forward-Looking Model," Public Finance Review, , vol. 21(4), pages 470-478, October.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Knot, Klaas & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in the European community," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 171-187, March.
    4. George Vamvoukas, 1998. "The relationship between budget deficits and money demand: evidence from a small economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 375-382.
    5. Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2000. "The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 163-220.
    6. Deravi, M Keivan & Hegji, Charles E & Moberly, H Dean, 1990. "Government Debt and the Demand for Money: An Extreme Bound Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(2), pages 390-401, April.
    7. M. Aslam Chaudhary & Ghulam Shabbir, 2004. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Monetary Variables on Pakistan’s Foreign Sector," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 62-84, Jan-June.
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    More about this item


    Budget Deficit; Money Demand; Error Correction Model (ECM); Nigeria;

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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