IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Cowboying Stock Market Herds with Robot Traders

Listed author(s):
  • Galimberti, Jaqueson
  • Suhadolnik, Nicolas
  • Da Silva, Sergio

One explanation for large stock market fluctuations is its tendency to herd behavior. We put forward an agent-based model where instabilities are the result of liquidity imbalances amplified by local interactions through imitation, and calibrate the model to match some key statistics of actual daily returns.We show that an “aggregate market-maker” type of liquidity injection is not successful in stabilizing prices due to the complex nature of the stock market. To offset liquidity shortages, we propose the use of locally triggered contrarian rules, and show that these mechanisms are effective in preventing extreme returns in our artificial stock market.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71758/1/MPRA_paper_71758.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 71758.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2016
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71758
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Ladha, Krishna K., 1995. "Information pooling through majority-rule voting: Condorcet's jury theorem with correlated votes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-372, May.
  2. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
  3. J. Doyne Farmer & Spyros Skouras, 2013. "An ecological perspective on the future of computer trading," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 325-346, February.
  4. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2006. "Asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1755-1786.
  5. Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011. "Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
  6. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-748, September.
  7. Sushil Bikhchandani & Sunil Sharma, 2001. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1-1.
  8. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  9. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  10. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
  11. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
  12. Bernheim, B Douglas, 1994. "A Theory of Conformity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(5), pages 841-877, October.
  13. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  14. Andreas Park & Hamid Sabourian, 2011. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 973-1026, 07.
  15. Kurz, Mordecai & Jin, Hehui & Motolese, Maurizio, 2005. "The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2017-2065, November.
  16. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
  17. Erik Eyster & Matthew Rabin, 2014. "Extensive Imitation is Irrational and Harmful," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(4), pages 1861-1898.
  18. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  19. Andrei A. Kirilenko & Andrew W. Lo, 2013. "Moore's Law versus Murphy's Law: Algorithmic Trading and Its Discontents," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 51-72, Spring.
  20. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Romer, David & Spence, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E. (ed.), 2012. "In the Wake of the Crisis: Leading Economists Reassess Economic Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026201761x, July.
  21. Alan Kirman, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-156.
  22. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  23. Grazzini, Jakob & Richiardi, Matteo, 2015. "Estimation of ergodic agent-based models by simulated minimum distance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-165.
  24. Scheinkman, Jose A & Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Self-Organized Criticality and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 417-421, May.
  25. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
  26. Suhadolnik, Nicolas & Galimberti, Jaqueson & Da Silva, Sergio, 2010. "Robot traders can prevent extreme events in complex stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(22), pages 5182-5192.
  27. Erik Eyster & Matthew Rabin, 2010. "Naïve Herding in Rich-Information Settings," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 221-243, November.
  28. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  29. William Branch & Bruce McGough, 2011. "Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 395-421, June.
  30. Gabaix, Xavier & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2011. "Rank − 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39.
  31. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
  32. Thierry Foucault, 2012. "Algorithmic trading: issues and preliminary evidence," Post-Print hal-00711389, HAL.
  33. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71758. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.