IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/71683.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How is the European debt crisis affecting islamic equity? challenges in portfolio diversification within the eurozone: A markov switching and continuous wavelet transform analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Shakir, Zeeniya
  • Masih, Mansur

Abstract

The European Debt crisis hit hard on the Eurozone, where the market convergence, rigid exchange rates and the single currency based instruments create tight challenges for investors in terms of looking for safer investments and portfolio diversification. Islamic Equity markets in Eurozone provide safety compared to debt based highly volatile derivatives that caused the global financial collapse. Since it is critical to study areas with implications for the portfolio diversification issue for the investors and policy makers from the perspective of Islamic Equity markets, this paper makes the humble effort of filling in the gap in literature. The paper analyses how the Islamic Equity Markets in the Eurozone change in periods of crisis analyzing their regime shift probabilities and durations using Markov- Switching techniques. Overall, the time-variations in market indices suggest that the Islamic Equity markets in Eurozone are not immune to external shocks and they tend to fluctuate with the economic and financial shocks. The study also shows how Islamic Market investors, from Germany’s perspective could find any optimal diversification opportunities inside the Eurozone and shows if there is a need for investing outside the Eurozone to maximize diversification benefits by empirically testing the time-varying and scale dependent volatilities and correlations using the method of Continuous Wavelet Transform. The period covered is from 12 June 2008 till 21 April 2016, with spans of weekly data of S&P Europe 350 Shariah – (S&P Dow Jones Indices) stock index prices changed into returns using logarithmic equations. The results of the study shed light into the area pf portfolio diversification between the studied countries within the Eurozone, showing very little diversification opportunities between the member countries. Overall there is little room for diversification in the highly correlated markets across heterogeneous investment horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Shakir, Zeeniya & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "How is the European debt crisis affecting islamic equity? challenges in portfolio diversification within the eurozone: A markov switching and continuous wavelet transform analysis," MPRA Paper 71683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71683
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71683/1/MPRA_paper_71683.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stracca, Livio, 2013. "The global effects of the euro debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1573, European Central Bank.
    2. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Masih, Rumi & Masih, Mansur & Alhabshi, Syed Othman, 2014. "Stock market co-movements: Islamic versus conventional equity indices with multi-timescales analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 553-571.
    3. Bertero, Elisabetta & Mayer, Colin, 1990. "Structure and performance: Global interdependence of stock markets around the crash of October 1987," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1155-1180, September.
    4. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    5. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu & Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Helge Berger & Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Allan Dizioli & Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin & Ms. Linda Kaltani & Mr. Sebas, 2016. "The Refugee Surge in Europe: Economic Challenges," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2016/002, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Shekhar Aiyar & Bergljot B Barkbu & Nicoletta Batini & Helge Berger & Enrica Detragiache & Allan Dizioli & Christian H Ebeke & Huidan Huidan Lin & Linda Kaltani & Sebastian Sosa & Antonio Spilimbergo , 2016. "The Refugee Surge in Europe; Economic Challenges," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 16/2, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 241-256, June.
    8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    9. Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2001. "Differentiating intraday seasonalities through wavelet multi-scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(3), pages 543-556.
    10. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    11. Eun, Cheol S. & Lee, Jinsoo, 2010. "Mean-variance convergence around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 856-870, April.
    12. Smimou, K., 2011. "Transition to the Euro and its impact on country portfolio diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 88-103, January.
    13. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    14. Gerald P. Dwyer & Rik Hafer, 1988. "Are national stock markets linked?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-14.
    15. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2014. "The Effect of Recent Financial Crisis over Global Portfolio Diversification Opportunities – Empirical Evidence A Comparative Multivariate GARCH-DCC, MODWT and Wavelet Correlation Analysis," MPRA Paper 58269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ilhan, Bilal & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Do Portfolio Diversification Opportunities exist across the Euro Zone Islamic Equity Markets? MGARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation Analysis," MPRA Paper 57688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ilhan, Bilal & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Do Portfolio Diversification Opportunities exist across the Euro Zone Islamic Equity Markets? MGARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation Analysis," MPRA Paper 57688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Investigating International Portfolio Diversification Opportunities for the Asian Islamic Stock Market Investors," MPRA Paper 90281, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2014. "The Effect of Recent Financial Crisis over Global Portfolio Diversification Opportunities – Empirical Evidence A Comparative Multivariate GARCH-DCC, MODWT and Wavelet Correlation Analysis," MPRA Paper 58269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ali, Hakim & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Evidence of cross-country portfolio diversification benefits: The case of Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 72180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Umirah, Fatin & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Should the Malaysian Islamic stock market investors invest in regional and international equity market to gain portfolio diversification benefits ?," MPRA Paper 79762, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Francois Chesnay & Eric Jondeau, 2001. "Does Correlation Between Stock Returns Really Increase During Turbulent Periods?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 30(1), pages 53-80, February.
    7. Mahfuzul Haque & Imen Kouki, 2009. "Effect of 9/11 on the conditional time-varying equity risk premium: evidence from developed markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 261-276, May.
    8. Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2016. "Return and volatility interdependences in up and down markets across developed and emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 297-311.
    9. Najeeb, Syed Faiq & Bacha, Obiyathulla & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Does a held-to-maturity strategy impede effective portfolio diversification for Islamic bond (sukuk) portfolios? A multi-scale continuous wavelet correlation analysis," MPRA Paper 56956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hakim, Abdul & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Forecasting conditional correlations in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2830-2846.
    11. Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2007. "Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 670-684, August.
    12. Marshall, Andrew & Maulana, Tubagus & Tang, Leilei, 2009. "The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 250-259, December.
    13. Chen, Wang & Wei, Yu & Lang, Qiaoqi & Lin, Yu & Liu, Maojuan, 2014. "Financial market volatility and contagion effect: A copula–multifractal volatility approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 289-300.
    14. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Mondher Bellalah & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "The comovements in international stock markets: new evidence from Latin American emerging countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1323-1328.
    15. Aymen Belgacem & Anna Creti & Khaled Guesmi & Amine Lahiani, 2015. "Volatility spillovers and macroeconomic announcements: evidence from crude oil markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2974-2984, June.
    16. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    17. Chan-Lau, Jorge A. & Ivaschenko, Iryna, 2003. "Asian Flu or Wall Street virus? Tech and non-tech spillovers in the United States and Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 303-322, December.
    18. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2015. "Similarity of emerging market returns under changing market conditions: Markets in the ASEAN-4, Latin America, Middle East, and BRICs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 253-268.
    19. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2016. "International contagion through financial versus non-financial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-163.
    20. Aymen Ben Rejeb & Adel Boughrara, 2015. "Financial integration in emerging market economies: Effects on volatility transmission and contagion," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(3), pages 161-179, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Portfolio Diversification; Eurozone Islamic Equity Markets Stock; Markov Switching; Continuous Wavelet Transform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71683. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.