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The global effects of the euro debt crisis

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  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

This paper is an event study focusing on the global effects of the euro debt crisis in 2010-2013. After identifying 18 key exogenous crisis events, I analyse the impact on equity returns, exchange rates and government bond yields in 12 advanced and 13 emerging countries. The main effect of euro debt crisis events is a rise in global risk aversion accompanied by fall in equity returns, in particular in the financial sector, in advanced countries (but not in emerging countries). The effect on bond yields is not statistically significant for the whole set of countries, but is significant and negative for key advanced countries such as the US and the UK. The paper also analyse the transmission channels by looking at how pre-crisis country characteristics influence the strength and direction of the spill-over, concluding that the transmission hinges more on trade than on fi nance. JEL Classification: F3

Suggested Citation

  • Stracca, Livio, 2013. "The global effects of the euro debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1573, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131573
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 163-192.
    2. Kalbaska, A. & Gątkowski, M., 2012. "Eurozone sovereign contagion: Evidence from the CDS market (2005–2010)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 657-673.
    3. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2012. "Flights to Safety," Working Paper Research 230, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
    5. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    6. Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
    7. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, April.
    8. Peter Claeys & Borek Vasicek, 2012. "Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News," Working Papers 2012/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    9. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 50-64.
    10. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 13-39.
    11. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 267-293, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2016. "Dynamic spillovers between Shanghai and London nonferrous metal futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 181-188.
    2. CHRISTOVA-BALKANSKA, Iskra, 2015. "The European Debt Crisis And The Challenges To The Banking Sector In Bulgaria," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 2(1), pages 15-22.
    3. Kang, Hyunju & Suh, Hyunduk, 2015. "Reverse spillover: Evidence during emerging market financial turmoil in 2013–2014," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 97-115.
    4. Gourène, Grakolet Arnold Zamereith & Mendy, Pierre & Ake N'gbo, Gilbert Marie, 2017. "Multiple time-xcales analysis of global stock markets spillovers effects in African stock markets," MPRA Paper 77632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Antonin Rusek, 2014. "Eurozone’s Future: Convergence, Restructuring or “Muddling Through”?," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, pages 45-56.
    6. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion; euro debt crisis; global risk aversion; spill-over;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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