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The global effects of the euro debt crisis

  • Stracca, Livio

This paper is an event study focusing on the global effects of the euro debt crisis in 2010-2013. After identifying 18 key exogenous crisis events, I analyse the impact on equity returns, exchange rates and government bond yields in 12 advanced and 13 emerging countries. The main effect of euro debt crisis events is a rise in global risk aversion accompanied by fall in equity returns, in particular in the …financial sector, in advanced countries (but not in emerging countries). The effect on bond yields is not statistically significant for the whole set of countries, but is significant and negative for key advanced countries such as the US and the UK. The paper also analyse the transmission channels by looking at how pre-crisis country characteristics influence the strength and direction of the spill-over, concluding that the transmission hinges more on trade than on fi…nance. JEL Classification: F3

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1573.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131573
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  1. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2005. "International Stock Return Comovements," Working Papers 06-3, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  2. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 267-293, 04.
  3. Chinn,M.D. & Ito,H., 2005. "What matters for financial development? : capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Working papers 4, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Getting beyond carry trade: what makes a safe haven currency?," Working Paper Series 1288, European Central Bank.
  5. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 191-240, 04.
  6. Baele, Lieven & Bekaert, Geert & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Wei, Min, 2014. "Flights to Safety," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Laura Jaramillo & Anke Weber, 2012. "Bond Yields in Emerging Economies; It Matters What State You Are In," IMF Working Papers 12/198, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," IREA Working Papers 201219, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2012.
  9. Kalbaska, A. & Gątkowski, M., 2012. "Eurozone sovereign contagion: Evidence from the CDS market (2005–2010)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 657-673.
  10. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
  11. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
  12. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Minsoo Lee & Donghyun Park, 2012. "Developing countries' financial vulnerability to the euro crisis: An event study of equity and bond markets," NBER Working Papers 18028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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